Will China join TPP is not the question

Some people are still debating whether China would join the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement despite the ForeignMinistry recently making it clear that Beijing has not changed its stance on the TPP even after the United States’ withdrawal from the economic grouping.

The two main impressions the Chinese people have about the TPP are: It is the previous US administration’s design to “contain” China, and the US President Donald Trump believes it would be drain on the US economy and therefore has “abandoned” it. And that the TPP could be an economic burden on China, if were to join it, is precisely why many Chinese people are worried; some even believe that by joining the TPP, China could fall into the “trap” of US diplomatic strategy.

While negotiating economic arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, China has been promoting inclusive growth in the Asia-Pacific region. So it is possible that China will cooperate with the TPP for that purpose, but that does not mean it might join the economic bloc.

Of course, there is a possibility of coordination between the RCEP and the TPP. As the two main cooperative arrangements in the Asia-Pacific, the RCEP and the TPP are not at odds with each other. Several signatory countries to the TPP, including Japan, Australia and Singapore, also support the RCEP. It shows the two arrangements are not zero-sum games.

Besides, the RCEP and the TPP both aim to promote economic and trade cooperation in the AsiaPacific, though their rules and access conditions are different. If they are opposed to each other, the result would be economic disintegration in the Asia-Pacific, which would not be beneficial to any of the parties.

As the largest trade partner of many countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific, China is rather influential in the region and one cannot imagine any cooperative economic or trade arrangement without China. Therefore, many of the countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific prefer not to choose between the TPP and the RCEP; all they want is to avoid being isolated or excluded from the future economic groupings.

That is in accordance withChina’s call for openness and inclusiveness. By promoting theRCEP, China does not intend to build a closed economic circle; instead, it has an open attitude toward TPP members and welcomes them to participate in theRCEPand FTAAP.

But since theTPP’s earlier leadership excludedChina from its plans, Beijing lacks adetailed understanding ofTPPregulationsanditsmembers’ interests. AndChina needs to better understand other economies’ interestsandprimary concerns, in order to get their support todevelop amoreinclusiveAsia-Pacific cooperation arrangement.

Still, the chance ofChina joining, let alone leading theTPP, is small, becausesomeof the rules are not in accordance with its interests. But China is ready to hear outTPP membercountries’ concerns to help pave theway foranearly agreement onfree trade in theAsia-Pacific.

But China is ready to hear out TPP member countries’ concerns to help pave the way for an early agreement on free trade in the Asia-Pacific.

The author is secretary-general at the Center of International Security Studies, China Foreign Affairs University.