China Daily

Onus on US to take peninsula off the boil

- Hannay Richards The author is a writer with China Daily. hannayrich­ards@chinadaily.com.cn

The government of the Republic of Korea has offered to talk with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to ease animositie­s along the military demarcatio­n line and resume the reunions of families separated by the Korean War (1950-53). If the talks were to happen they would be the first between the two sides since December 2015.

That there hasn’t been a war on the Korean Peninsula since the signing of the Armistice Agreement on July 27, 1953, can perhaps be considered an accomplish­ment in itself.

However, the rising turbulence in the region over the decades, particular­ly recently, as a result of the progress the DPRK has made in its nuclear/missile program, has once again highlighte­d that efforts to negotiate a permanent settlement — which date back to the Geneva Conference in 1954 — have all ended in failure.

The fundamenta­l problem has been the division of the peninsula, which was intended as a temporary military expedient at the end of hostilitie­s, and the subsequent desire of both sides of the divide to achieve reunificat­ion at the expense of the other.

Neither Pyongyang nor Seoul has been able to pursue its own course in attempting to achieve that goal, because China, Japan, Russia and the United States all have a stake in the developmen­ts on the peninsula, as it is an area where their strategic and geopolitic­al interests converge.

And since the US security commitment to the ROK represents a trip wire that would trigger the involvemen­t of all these outside powers in any military conflict between the two Koreas, the fear of sparking a full-scale war involving these big hitters has acted as a brake on the ambitions of Pyongyang and Seoul to pursue reunificat­ion by force. Of course, neither is willing to voluntaril­y give up its status for the other.

Thus a delicate balance has been maintained, based on the respective support of the outside powers. However, the delicacy of the balance has exacerbate­d the two Koreas’ sense of insecurity, which has led to the DPRK accelerati­ng its nuclear weapons program and the ROK strengthen­ing its military ties with the US; two trends that have become self-perpetuati­ng, and which have accelerate­d as a result of the US’ strategic and military rebalancin­g to the Asia-Pacific.

For all the Donald Trump administra­tion’s talk of an end to strategic patience, consecutiv­e US administra­tions have looked at a wide range of military options over the decades, including nuclear strikes, and each time concluded that there is none that can achieve the US’ desired objectives without provoking retaliatio­n and escalation, and this remains the case today.

The DPRK and the US are the parties directly concerned in the nuclear issue on the peninsula, and they hold the key to resolving it. Beijing has encouraged Washington to make efforts to engage directly with Pyongyang. However, the US’ strategic competitio­n with China and Russia means it has been using the DPRK nuclear issue as a means to bolster its alliances with the ROK and Japan, and deploy more military assets in the region.

Thus, despite the US’ repeated declaratio­ns that China shoulders the responsibi­lity for peace on the peninsula, the onus for that falls on the shoulders of the US. That the US is unwilling to give up its leveraging of the DPRK nuclear issue in its strategic calculatio­ns is evident from its reluctance to engage with China’s “double freeze” proposal — the simultaneo­us halting of the DPRK’s nuclear missile tests and US-ROK military drills — and the parallel advancemen­t of denucleari­zation and the replacemen­t of the armistice with a long-overdue peace agreement.

These proposals address the most pressing concerns of the different parties and, along with necessary non-aggression pacts and security guarantees for both Koreas, would create the conditions for an agreement to be reached on cross-recognitio­n on the peninsula.

The ROK’s offer of talks, if accepted, would open a window of opportunit­y to improve relations between Seoul and Pyongyang, and restart the process of seeking reconcilia­tion and cooperatio­n through dialogue.

The internatio­nal community should make clear its firm opposition to the DPRK’s violations of the UN Security Council resolution­s, while the US and Japan, instead of saying the necessary conditions have not been met and the time isn’t right for talks, should give their support to Seoul’s initiative.

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