China’s Prospec­tive Eco­nomic Trends

China Today (English) - - CONTENTS - By staff reporter JIAO FENG

AGAINST the back­drop of an in­tri­cate global eco­nomic cli­mate, China faces mount­ing pres­sure from a down­ward econ­omy. GDP growth fell to 6.9 per­cent year- on- year in 2015, a his­toric low. The be­gin­ning of 2016 wit­nessed lack­lus­ter per­for­mances in both stock and cur­rency mar­kets, and a breadth of fallen trade even larger than last year, spark­ing global con­cern about the state of the Chi­nese econ­omy.

On March 2, Moody’s ad­justed China’s govern­ment credit out­look from sta­ble to neg­a­tive. How­ever, the mar­ket re­sponded calmly; the off­shore RMB ex- change rate was sta­ble and do­mes­tic bond and stock mar­kets were un­af­fected.

The year 2016 marks the ini­ti­a­tion of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) for Eco­nomic and So­cial De­vel­op­ment. A group of distin­guished ex­perts and schol­ars gave their points of view on the ques­tions: In which di­rec­tion is the Chi­nese econ­omy headed? Can the macro econ­omy de­fend the bot­tom­line? And can China over­come dif­fi­cul­ties to achieve the five-year plan tar­gets? Their com­ments are sum­ma­rized be­low.

Hard Land­ing?

The year 2016 marks the start of the de­ci­sive phase of com­plet­ing con­struc­tion of a mod­er­ately pros­per­ous so­ci­ety in all re­spects, and also of a crit­i­cal stage in ad­vanc­ing struc­tural re­form.

On a global scale, un­cer­tain­ties and un­sta­ble fac­tors in China’s ex­ter­nal en­vi­ron­ment af­fected it to an ex­tent that can­not be un­der­es­ti­mated: the world’s econ­omy is un­der­go­ing a pro­found ad­just­ment and a slug­gish re­cov­ery, with floun­der­ing in­ter­na­tional trade, fluc­tu­a­tions in fi­nan­cial and com­mod­ity mar­kets, and el­e­vated geopo­lit­i­cal risks.

From the do­mes­tic per­spec­tive, ac­cu­mu­la­tive prob­lems and risks have sur­faced, ap­par­ent in a lower growth rate, the tra­vail of eco­nomic re­struc­ture, the switch of eco­nomic driv­ing forces, and greater down­ward pres­sure. Con­cerns over the Chi­nese econ­omy are con­stantly

A ship­ment of im­ported goods ar­rives at Lianyun­gang, a port city in north­east­ern Jiangsu Prov­ince.

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