BRICS – More than just an acronym 金砖五国—不仅仅是缩写

文 Riccardo Orcel, Deputy CEO of VTB Group, Head of VTB International 里卡多·奥尔赛,俄罗斯VTB集团副总裁兼VTB国际负责人

China's Foreign Trade (Chinese) - - 特别报道 -

The close relationship between Russia and China could be a model for closer integration and co-operation between the BRICS nations.

密切的俄中关系可以为金砖国家树立紧密关系与合作的典范。

It was back in 2001 that former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neil first coined the term“BRIC”to describe the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China and predicted they would go on to become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050.

早在2001年,前高盛经济学家吉姆· 奥尼尔(Jim O'Neil)第一次提出“BRIC(金砖四国)”的概念,用于代指极具经济潜力的巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国,并预测金砖四国作为一个整体将在2050年成为全球四大主要经济体之一。

During the 16 years since 2001 there have been various ups and downs but the BRICS countries (that were expanded to include South Africa in 2010) have experienced dramatic progress and there has never been a better opportunity for increased cooperation among the BRICS countries than now.

在过去的16年中,尽管起伏在所难免,但金砖国家(2010年新增南非为成员国,“金砖四国(BRIC)”的名称改为“金砖国家(BRICS)”)之间的合作取得了长 足的进步,迎来了增强金砖国家间合作的最好机会。

The latest global PMI data, which is a timely assessment of activity trends in the manufacturing and services sector, features the best two quarters of growth in two years. Forecasts from the IMF and the World Bank continue to predict a recovery in the global economy largely driven by stronger growth in many EM economies.

提供制造业和服务业最新活动趋势评估的全球PMI数 示,2017年上半年全球经济增速为近两年以来的最高。国际货币基金组织和世界银行的预测持续乐观,而新兴市场经济体将成为全球经济增长的主要动力。

Countries like Brazil and Russia are recovering from having to adjust to the end of the commodity super-cycle. The World Bank in its June forecasts envisages real GDP growth across Emerging Markets generally of 4.1% this year versus no more than 2% in the US, UK and Eurozone.

巴西和俄罗斯等国家正处于大宗商品超级周期的最后阶段,经济呈现复苏态势。世界银行6月份的预测显示,2017年新兴市场的真实GDP增幅普遍在4.1%左右,美国、英国和欧元区的增幅则不超过2%。

While the BRICS acronym began as simple acknowledgement of the growing importance of emerging markets economies generally, the component countries varied in their economic and financial structures. Now, we should start to think less of emerging market economies and financial markets as a homogeneous bloc but rather a grouping with its own country-specific characteristics.

作为巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非的英文名称首字母缩写,BRICS最初只是新兴市场经济体的集合,表示新兴经济体的重要性日益引起了西方国家的重视。然而,由于成员国的经济和金融结构各不相同,金砖国家已经越来越不像一个同质化的新兴市场经济体和金融市场集合,独特的国家间合作机制正在建立。

China and Russia are providing a good example of how this co-operation can work, against a supportive global economic backdrop. These two countries have been accelerating their integration with closer ties and joint initiatives. There are vast opportunities in the development of China’s‘One Belt, One Road’initiative and the prospect of expanding opportunities in infrastructure, as well as agreements to grow closer co-operation in agriculture. For Russia and for VTB in particular, Asia’s importance and outward focus comes as no surprise and in the first

half of 2017 trade between China and Russia surged 26% as the Russian pivot east has produced the desire for bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and increased corporate deal flow.

中国和俄罗斯提供了绝佳的典范,展示了合作对全球经济的支持作用。两国正在通过更紧密的联系和联合倡议等活动加强合作。中国“一带一路”倡议不仅带来了巨大的发展机遇,而且将显著改善沿线国家的基础设施,增强农业领域的合作。对俄罗斯和特别是VTB来说,亚洲的重要性不言而喻,成为世界瞩目的焦点也毫无意外。2017年上半年,中俄贸易额增加26%,俄罗斯战略东移推动了双边贸易、跨国合作和公司间交易的需求。

VTB identified this opportunity early and has been present onshore in China since 2008 and has an important branch in Shanghai, as well as opening an office in Hong Kong for VTB Capital in 2011. We are the only bank in Russia with a financial license to conduct banking operations in China. China’s economy has grown tremendously and the country has rapidly created a deep capital market. VTB’s development in China has kept pace with this market growth as we look to support crossborder investmnednt flows. We have participated in over 20 bond issues and 5 M&A deals, as well as facilitating closer co-operation by financing Chinese companies in Russia and engaging in commercial agreements with CNPC, Alibaba and others.

VTB很早就注意到了亚洲市场,最早于2008年进入了中国市场,在上海设立了重要分支机构,并于2011年开设了VTB Capital香港办事处。我们是唯一一家拥有中国金融许可并能够在华开展银行业务的俄罗斯银行。中国经济发展迅猛,资本市场前景广阔。通过支持跨境投资,VTB在华业务保持了与中国经济的同步增长。我们已参与了超过20次债券发行和5次并购交易,并将通过一系列措施加深中俄合作关系,例如为在俄罗斯的中国企业提供融资服务,积极参与中国石油天然气集团、阿里巴巴等企业的商业协议等等。

India is another of the key markets where VTB see opportunities to continue expanding its business. The IMF in its latest update of economic forecasts published in July 2017 sees the Indian economy expanding 7.2% this year followed by an acceleration in growth to 7.7% in 2018. The economy has handled the impact of demonetization and replacement of high-denomination banknotes in November 2016. Domestic demand is expected to remain strong supported by ongoing policy reforms and the government’s economic reform agenda aimed at easing supply constraints and supporting private investment.

VTB也十分看重印度市场,认为有机会继续扩大在印度的业务。国际货币基金组织在2017年7月发布的最新经济预测显示,2017年印度经济增速将达到7.2%,2018年增速有望升高至7.7%。目前,印度已经逐步消除了2016年11月废除和更换大面额纸币的影响。并且,印度正在实施持续的政策改革和政府经济改革议程,以缓解供应紧张局面,改善私人投资环境。在持续改革的支持下,印度将保持旺盛的国内需求。

In India VTB Capital are well known for advising on the take-private of Essar Energy Plc in a $2bn deal and the sale of Essar Oil in a recent

$12.9bn transaction. We have also helped finance a number of Indian firms and are currently working on several projects across a number of sectors. VTB Capital was ranked #1 in Completed M&A by Thomson Reuters for the first half of 2017.

在印度,VTB Capital因为20亿美元的Essar Energy Plc交易建议以及最近129亿美元的Essar Oil出售交易而闻名。此外,我们还曾帮助多家印度公司融资,并且目前正在多个行业实施项目。在汤森路透社的2017年上半年已完成并购金额排名中,VTB Capital排名第一。

India has also traditionally been VTB’s largest market for supplying gold and silver – since early 2017 Indian counterparts have bought circa 15 tonnes of gold and 130 tonnes of silver. Given the current dynamics we are optimistic that, by the end of this year, gold sales will amount to at least 20 tonnes, and at least 300 tonnes of silver.

此外,印度还是VTB最大的黄金和白银市场。 2017年初至今,VTB供应印度的黄金和白银数量已分别达到了15吨和130吨左右。并且,按照目前的趋势,我们对销售前景保持乐观,预计2017 年全年印度市场的黄金销量将不低于20吨,白银销量在300吨以上。

Our objective is to help enable closer integration across the BRICS. This is often by working with Russian clients keen to attract investment or enter BRICS markets with the right introductions and financing. From a Chinese, Indian, South African or Brazilian perspective, VTB Capital is well placed to introduce clients to the opportunities Russia can offer to investors.

我们的目标是帮助金砖国家建立更紧密的联系。通常的做法是与希望吸引投资或进入金砖国家市场的俄罗斯客户合作,为他们提供推荐和融资服务。从中国、印度、南非或巴西的角度来看,VTB Capital具有独特的优势,能够向客户介绍俄罗斯提供的投资机会。

Many emerginng economies are in a much better debt position than some developed market regions. In 2017, emerging market government debt stands at 49% of GDP compared to 107% for advanced economies. Russia has one of the lowest general government debt-GDP ratios at 17%. Of course emerging market economies are not totally insulated from what goes on in the rest of the global economy and remain vulnerable in part to any adverse monetary policy spill-overs from both the US, as the infamous‘taper tantrum’in 2013 made clear.

许多新兴市场经济体的债务状况明显好于发达市场。2017年,新兴市场的政府债务GDP占比为49%,远低于发达经济体的107%。其中俄罗斯的政府债务GDP占比最低,仅为17%。当然,新兴市 场经济体不会完全与全球其他经济活动隔离,并且仍然会受到美国任何负面货币政策溢出的冲击。2013年著名的“削减恐慌”就证明了这一点。

However, a softer US dollar and a Fed that is normalizing financial conditions only gradually are allowing emerging market equity markets and economies to perform well. Some markets are reaching new highs, as foreign portfolio inflows rotate away from over-valued US equity markets being led by a narrowing group of sectors dominated by tech stocks.

然而,得益于偏宽松的美元货币政策,加上美国联邦储备局逐步恢复金融秩序正常化的努力,新兴市场股市和经济目前均表现良好。与此同时,由于科技股主导的行业预期收窄,美国股市估值过高的观点成为主流,外资开始逃离美国进入新兴市场,这正在推动部分新兴市场股市达到新高。

A natural beneficiary of this would be Russia, and even more free trade between other BRICS members would go a long way towards creating a healthy global economy, which requires that free trade; as well as open markets and a commitment to sustainable growth.

俄罗斯成为了当前局势的受益者。健康的全球经济需要自由贸易,但仅依靠金砖国家之间的自由贸易远远不够。我们还需要开放的市场和增加对可持续增长的投入。

Riccardo Orcel,

Deputy CEO of VTB Group, Head of VTB International里卡多·奥尔赛,

俄罗斯VTB集团副总裁兼VTB国际负责人

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