GM(1,N)model-based prediction of carbon steel corrosion rate

Chinese Journal of Ship Research - - NEWS -

ZHENG Ruyan1,PENG Fei2,MU Jinlei2 1 Naval Military Representative Office in Jiangnan Shipyard (Group) Co. Ltd.,Shanghai 201913,China 2 Department of Naval Architecture Engineering,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China The corrosion rate prediction of carbon steel in marine environment is very complicated and uncertain.[Methods] To improve the accuracy of prediction model in view of the low precision of grey prediction model for corrosion rate of carbon steel at present stage , the key factors which affect the corrosion rate can be concluded from the grey theory analysis of marine environment and corrosion rate of carbon steel, and then the GM(1,N) model which can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel is established.[Results]According to the case analysis, the main factors that affect the corrosion rate in seaareas of Qindao, Xiamen, Zhousan, Yulin coastal region are seawater temperature, biofouling, pH value and salinity, and based on the above, the establishment of GM(1,5) model possesses higher precision and less computational costs.[Conclusions]The research shows that the GM(1,N) model can predict the corrosion rate of carbon steel effectively, and also provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of residual life of carbon steel.


rate;residual life;carbon steel;grey theory

words:GM(1,N)model;corrosion Key


一般来说,在许多工程应用领域普遍存在金属腐蚀的问题,它涉及面广且危害大,如舰船装备 的腐蚀往往会影响舰船的安全航行,抑制舰船战斗力的发挥[1]。在碳钢应用广泛的海洋领域,它具有成本低、工艺性强等优点,约占海洋用金属材4/5料的 以上[ 2 ],其腐蚀现象受到普遍关注。因

收稿日期:2017 06 21 网络出版时间:2018-2-2 15:09基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51309231);海军工程大学自然科学基金资助项目(20161595)作者简介:郑如炎,男,1993年生,硕士。研究方向:船舶与海洋工程。E-mail:898195844@qq.com牟金磊(通信作者),男,1980年生,博士,讲师。研究方向:船体结构。

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