Scandal won’t oust Abe but puts leadership on shaky ground

According to Japanese media, before his hearing in the Diet, Japan’s legislature, on Thursday, the head of scandalhit school Moritomo Gakuen, Yasunori Kogoike, claimed that he received a 1- million- yen ($ 8,800) donation from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Abe denied such claim, declaring that he “would quit as prime minister and as a Diet member” if he or his wife, Akie Abe, was involved.

Given that any perjuries that Kogoike may make in the hearing will lead to legal punishment, analysts believe that Abe would surely quit his job. To me, the scandal itself will exert profound impact on Japan’s politics, but it may not end Abe’s term in advance.

First, Abe’s approval rate remains at a relatively high level despite the scandal. Thus, he will not suddenly leave his post. The scandal has been the focus of media speculation since mid- February, but polls haven’t shown a drastic decline in support for Abe. For instance, the poll published on March 20 by Yomiuri Shimbun showed the approval rate for Abe’s cabinet was 56 percent, a decrease by 10 percent from February; Asahi Shimbun’s poll on March 14 said that the rate was 49 percent, just 2 percent down. Japanese media like NHK, JIJI Press and Mainichi Shimbun released similar results, with Abe’s approval above 50 percent.

Compared with his predecessors like Yoshihiko Noda, Naoto Kan, Yukio Hatoyama and Taro Aso, all of whom left office in the wake of their falling approval rating that dipped below 20 percent, Abe hasn’t garnered enough pressure from the public to step down.

Second, even if there is solid proof of Abe’s donation to Moritomo Gakuen, his position wouldn’t be thoroughly shaken. Japan’s Public Offices Election Act stipulates that candidates cannot give any donations or bribes within their electorates. But, no restriction is indicated for donations outside the candidates’ electorate. Abe, as a Diet member from the Yamaguchi Prefecture, could not be charged for the donation to the school located in the Osaka Prefecture. However, Abe’s rhetoric in the Diet will mar his political reputation and incur moral criticism. And then, it is up to him whether to quit or not. As mentioned above, Abe still holds a high approval rate, and he can reinstate public support through diplomatic and economic strategies.

Third, there will be no party change right after Abe leaves in light of Japan’s present political situation. According to the Constitution of Japan, the prime minister is elected from Diet members of the two houses— House of Representatives and House of Councilors. If the outcome from the House of Councilors is not in line with that of the House of Representatives, the latter makes the final decision. Hence, the prime minister is usually the leader of the majority party in the House of Representatives. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP) has the majority of seats in the house. As the term for members of the House of Representatives will not end until December, 2018, the next prime minister still comes from the LDP if Abe steps down.

Meanwhile, JIJI Press’ poll on March 17 showed that the approval rate for the ruling LDP was 26 percent while the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party, had only 4.1 percent. Therefore, a change in the ruling party within such a short time is hardly possible.

Though Abe is less popular than Kakuei Tanaka who once stepped down amid an embezzlement scandal, he is still considered a mighty prime minister in recent decades. If Abe quits, he is expected to be a shadow prime minister, like what Tanaka was, to exert influence on Japan’s politics from behind the scenes.

The school scandal will not lead to Abe’s resignation, but will speed up the arrival of the post- Abe era. Earlier this month, the LDP constitution prolonged the term of the party president from two terms in six years to three terms in nine years. That means Abe will remain in his current position until 2021 if he wins the party leadership.

But, the scandal has disturbed Abe’s political agenda including the constitutional amendment. It has also undermined his influence and aroused antiAbe sentiments within the party, which could become obstacles for him in the LDP presidential election in September. Once he fails, Abe would inevitably have to step down.