Fantasy or Reality?

虛實之間

Squarefoot - - CONTENTS 目錄 - TEXT BY ELIZABETH KERR

FOCUS Hong Kong's land shortage is a subject continually up for debate, with housing advocates claiming it's a myth and the government looking to the far future to defend its policy. Who's right? 香港土地短缺問題爭論不休,有人認為房屋政策不力, 政府則認為長遠可收成效。究竟誰對誰錯?

香港土地短缺問題爭論不休,有人認為房屋政策不力,政府則認為長遠可收成效。究竟誰對誰錯?

Land supply is a sensitive subject in Hong Kong, inspiring arguments almost as fiery as those about religion or politics. With newly built flats getting smaller yet again—sun Hung Kai Properties sold flats in the luxury Cullinan West II as small as 270 square feet (which would be illegal in London, Sydney and New York) in September—and the government vowing new supply of nearly 500,000 units between now and 2027, the land for all these homes must come from somewhere. Hong Kong does have land, much of it admittedly undevelopable (the construction cost of building a working apartment block on the side of Victoria Peak would make prices even more untenable), but a little creativity among developers, the Development Bureau, Town Planning and the Urban Renewal Authority could go a long way in proving there's no land shortage.

Hard Numbers

According to statistics by the United Nations and Moody's Analytics, population growth in Hong Kong will slow to below 0.5% per year starting in roughly 2030—precisely the time frame for the government's shaky Hong Kong 2030+ plan. For anyone that might point to foreign media bias or conspiracy, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department's own projection report for 2017 to 2066 predicts the population will increase from the current (estimated) 7.4 million to 7.72 million in that time. For comparison: Brisbane will gain 125,000 in the next three years, the city of Toronto is projected to gain 975,000 residents by 2041, and venerable London is expected to add 774,000 residents by 2026—after Brexit. The world's fastest growing cities are clustered in Africa and Asia—lagos, Dar es Salaam, Fuzhou, Beihai, Chittagong, Surat—but Hong Kong is not one of them. Much of the last round of the government's land use policy was based on data that suggested the SAR would be home to nine million people by 2017, a target that's been and gone. As such, the need for more housing may not be there in the near future, creating giant swaths of land for residential development sites or potential future ghost towns. Critics like Tom Yam, who focuses on reclamation in Lantau, point out reclamation is costly and slow, and will ultimately hold residences that are unnecessary. “There is a whole list of options they could explore, but those require leadership and political will,” said Yam late in 2017. “The East Lantau Metropolis project will cost $400 billion and take 30 years to complete. It has nothing to do with solving the housing problem right now. It's not the same issue.”

土地供應是香港的敏感話題,與宗教及政治一樣引起熱議。新建單位愈縮愈小,新鴻基地產於9月份開售的豪宅匯 II,單位面積只得270平方呎(在倫敦、悉尼和紐約屬違法),政府則承諾由現在至2027年,將有500,000個新單位落成,但土地從何來?香港有大量不適合發展土地(試想在山頂興建住宅大廈是如何不切實際),但只要發展商、發展局、城市規劃委員會和市建局願意多給一點創意,土地短缺困局或可迎刃而解。

數據引證

據聯合國資料和穆迪分析,到2030年,香港人口增長將放緩至每年0.5%以下,屆時正是政府《香港2030+》規劃的開展期。撇除外國傳媒預測,香港統計署亦預計由2017至2066年,人口會由現時約740萬上升至772萬。相比之下,布里斯本在未來三年上升125,000人;多倫多市至2041年將增加975,000人;而倫敦至2026年增加774,000人(脫歐之後)。全球人口

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