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Financial Mirror (Cyprus) - - FRONT PAGE -

Dai­lyFX.com, the news and re­search web­site of FXCM Inc, has re­leased its Top Trad­ing Op­por­tu­ni­ties of 2015 where an­a­lysts looked at the lessons learned in 2014, where the mar­ket stands to­day and what could come in the fu­ture to sug­gest trends and trades they will be look­ing for­ward to in 2015.

Through the sec­ond half of 2014, the EURUSD dropped from 1.4000 to well be­low 1.2500. While this de­cline en­com­passes a num­ber of el­e­ments, ac­cord­ing to Chief Cur­rency Strate­gist John Kick­lighter, much of the mo­men­tum was a side ef­fect of the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank’s ef­forts. How­ever, much of what we have seen from the Euro’s de­cline through the end of the year was in an­tic­i­pa­tion of a grow­ing ECB bal­ance sheet.

For cur­rency strate­gist Ilya Spivak, sell­ing the Euro against the US Dol­lar was his top trade for 2014. He rea­soned the Fed’s move to ta­per QE3 as­set pur­chases marked a hawk­ish pol­icy shift while the ECB looked likely to ramp up stim­u­lus as re­alised and ex­pected Eu­ro­zone in­fla­tion read­ings tum­bled.

Ac­cord­ing to cur­rency an­a­lyst Christo­pher Vec­chio, in years past, prom­ises of pend­ing stim­u­lus had put a halt on the de­clines seen by the Euro at times, but the na­ture of the cur­rent de­cline in the Euro is dif­fer­ent than those pre­vi­ously - con­text is im­por­tant.

Se­nior Cur­rency Strate­gist Kris­tian Kerr be­lieves that the move that the US Dol­lar started last year has a lot of more room to run. He also sees the USD/JPY likely to ex­tend gains in 2015, but the first half of the year could prove choppy as ex­treme sen­ti­ment and po­si­tion­ing likely to weigh.

Cur­rency an­a­lyst David de Fer­ranti sees the Fed re­main­ing on the path to­wards pol­icy nor­mal­i­sa­tion in 2015. De­spite sub­dued in­fla­tion in the US, con­sis­tent progress in the labour mar­ket may lead pol­icy mak­ers to be­gin a slow process of hik­ing rates. This is in stark con­trast to the ECB and BOJ mon­e­tary poli­cies which are mov­ing in the op­po­site di­rec­tion. Fur­ther­more, the RBA and BoE are also likely to re­main re­luc­tant to raise rates. This in turn sup­ports the prospect of a con­tin­ued ad­vance for the US Dol­lar In­dex.

Ac­cord­ing to


strate­gist David Ro­driguez,

for the third-con­sec­u­tive year, he be­lieves that sell­ing the Ja­panese Yen will be on the top trades of the New Year. Even though noth­ing moves in a straight line, BOJ might con­tinue a weak Ja­panese Yen Pol­icy lead­ing to more quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing.

For Se­nior Tech­ni­cal Strate­gist Jamie Saet­tele, the NZDUSD con­tin­ues to re­main firm rel­a­tive to other com­mod­ity cur­ren­cies, no­tably the Aus­tralian Dol­lar. How­ever, a broad mul­ti­year top­ping pat­tern warns that the Kiwi may be the next to feel the wrath of a strong US Dol­lar.

Cur­rency strate­gist Michael Boutros an­tic­i­pates fur­ther ap­pre­ci­a­tion in the Ster­ling against the Ja­panese yen. Tech­ni­cal anal­y­sis sug­gests that the pair is vul­ner­a­ble at the start of the year with the pull­back likely to of­fer fa­vor­able en­tries. The di­verg­ing mon­e­tary out­looks for the re­spec­tive cen­tral banks is likely to keep the pound well sup­ported ver­sus the yen in 2015 as the BOJ con­tin­ues to ag­gres­sively ease in an at­tempt to achieve the 2% in­fla­tion tar­get.

Ac­cord­ing to an­a­lyst David Song, the grow­ing de­vi­a­tion in mon­e­tary pol­icy con­tin­ues to foster a bear­ish out­look for EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD as the ECB strug­gles to achieve its one and only man­date for price sta­bil­ity. Nev­er­the­less, the Bank of Eng­land (BoE) re­mains on track to raise the bench­mark in­ter­est rate in 2015.

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