Earn­ings

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pro­grams and that, “All in, we look at the an­nounce­ment from two prin­ci­pal an­gles – con­sis­tency in per­for­mance and cash flow.”

Deutsche Bank has a Buy rat­ing on the stock and $160 price tar­get. The firm’s Myles Wal­ton and his team said there was no change or im­pact to es­ti­mates from the charges on the 747 and 787 pro­grams. Here is some ad­di­tional de­tail: “The 787 pro­gram ac­count­ing could now likely ab­sorb a de­ci­sion to not go to rate 14 later in the decade (con­sis­tent with our model) with­out a for­ward loss charge. Be­cause we don’t use the 787 in­ven­tory as a start­ing point for cash es­ti­mates, the charge has no im­pact on our FCF es­ti­mates. (our model as­sumes BA won’t re­coup up to $10B of the de­ferred in­ven­tory through 2021). We had ex­pected the write off of the re­main­der of the 747 in­ven­tory but were only un­aware of the timing. With this $1.2B pre­tax charge ($814M/$1.28 af­ter­tax), the 747 in­ven­tory was writ­ten off and 19 air­craft were re­moved from the block. There were no changes to our cash model from the 747 charge.”

Mer­rill Lynch has an Un­der­per­form rat­ing and a $125 price ob­jec­tive on the stock. Af­ter low­er­ing es­ti­mates for the quar­ter and the year, the Mer­rill Lynch team said: “Is buy­ing back stock the best use of cash? At first glance, in­vestors typ­i­cally view share re­pur­chase as pos­i­tive. How­ever, con­sid­er­ing the cycli­cal­ity and cap­i­tal in­ten­sive na­ture of com­mer­cial aerospace, we won­der whether Boe­ing’s buy-back of a sig­nif­i­cant amount of stock in the cur­rent en­vi­ron­ment is the best use of cash. Boe­ing is fac­ing ex­e­cu­tion is­sues, as high­lighted by the charges recorded to­day, un­cer­tain global macroe­co­nomic en­vi­ron­ment, in­creased po­lit­i­cal in­sta­bil­ity, which could in turn hurt global air travel, and the prospect of in­vest­ing in a new clean sheet Mid­dle of the Mar­ket air­craft.”

Us­ing Boe­ing’s re­ported af­ter-tax and EPS fig­ures for the charge, we cal­cu­late that Boe­ing’s av­er­age di­luted share count was 636mn in 2Q16. We note that Boe­ing’s av­er­age di­luted share count in 1Q16 was 666mn, but the com­pany ended the quar­ter at 650mn shares. As­sum­ing a sim­ple av­er­age, we es­ti­mate that Boe­ing re­pur­chased 28mn shares in 2Q16, which fac­tors in an end­ing share count of 622mn. If we as­sume that Boe­ing paid an av­er­age price of $130 per share in 2Q16, we es­ti­mate share re­pur­chase of $3.64bn in 2Q16.

Cash is the com­mon theme here. Two an­a­lyst teams see no change in Boe­ing’s cash flow and the other won­ders whether stock buy­backs are the best use of the com­pany’s cash. Boe­ing has fore­cast cash flow of around $10 bil­lion for 2016, and you can take it to the bank that the com­pany will at least meet that goal.

Ear­lier this year the com­pany changed the way it pays its bills and at least one sup­plier, Rock­well Collins, com­plained on Monday that it has not re­ceived sec­ond-quar­ter pay­ments of $30 mil­lion to $40 mil­lion that Boe­ing owes it. Boe­ing has told vendors that it will take 120 days to pay rather than its pre­vi­ous prac­tice of paying in 30 days. That’s cer­tainly one way to keep that cash flow num­ber up there.

Shortly af­ter noon on Tues­day, the stock traded at $133.62, up 0.5% on the day, in a 52-week range of $102.10 to $150.59.

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