UAE, KSA among top na­tions to suf­fer from so­cial cost of car­bon

The Daily News Egypt - - Science -

af­fects peo­ple and ecosys­tems around the world, to­day and in the fu­ture. How­ever, these im­pacts are not in­cluded in mar­ket prices, cre­at­ing an en­vi­ron­men­tal ex­ter­nal­ity whereby con­sumers of fos­sil fuel en­ergy do not pay for and are un­aware of the true costs of their con­sump­tion,” added Ricke.

Ricke elab­o­rated fur­ther, stat­ing that “eval­u­at­ing the eco­nomic cost as­so­ci­ated with cli­mate is valu­able on a num­ber of fronts, as these es­ti­mates are used to in­form US en­vi­ron­men­tal reg­u­la­tion and rule­mak­ings.”

Re­gard­ing the process of es­ti­ma­tion, the lead au­thor in­formed DNE that it is a four step process: first, a so­cio-eco­nomic mod­ule wherein the team of re­searchers de­fined the fu­ture evo­lu­tion of the econ­omy,in­clud­ing emis­sions of CO2, with­out the im­pact of cli­mate change and with­out cli­mate pol­icy.

Sec­ond, a cli­mate mod­ule wherein we es­ti­mate how the earth sys­tem will re­spond to emis­sions of CO2 and other an­thro­pogenic forces.

Third, a dam­ages mod­ule, wherein the eco­nomic dam­ages due to changes in the earth sys­tem are quan­ti­fied.

Fourth and fi­nally, a dis­count­ing mod­ule, wherein a time series of fu­ture dam­ages is com­pressed into a sin­gle present value us­ing so­cial dis­count­ing.

“We es­ti­mated the eco­nomic im­pacts us­ing em­pir­i­cal, macroe­co­nomic dam­age func­tion­sre­la­tion­ships be­tween eco­nomic growth and changes in cli­mate based on past ob­ser­va­tions. This has the ad­van­tage of cap­tur­ing in­terac­tions and a mul­ti­tude of small or dif­fi­cult-to-iden­tify im­pacts, but re­quires as­sum­ing that fu­ture dam­ages will re­sem­ble those as­so­ci­ated with tem­per­a­ture fluc­tu­a­tions in the past. It doesn’t in­clude longert­erm im­pacts of ris­ing CO2 like ocean acid­i­fi­ca­tion or sea level rise. These will be im­por­tant ex­ten­sions of the model in the fu­ture,” Ricke con­cluded.

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