Fiji Sun

India-China Faceoff: Was it Inevitable?

- Jai Kumar Sharma in Ladakh, India Feedback: rosi.doviverata@fijisun.com.fj

IF WAR IS TOO SERIOUS A BUSINESS TO BE LEFT TO THE GENERALS, IT IS ALSO TOO SERIOUS A BUSINESS TO BE LEFT TO IGNORANT POLITICIAN­S. ‘HOT WAR’ BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA WILL LEAD TO A LARGER REGIONAL CONFLAGRAT­ION WITH UNTOLD AND POSSIBLY UNFORESEEN CONSEQUENC­ES FOR BOTH THE ASIAN GIANTS.

■Jai Kumar Sharma is Fiji Sun’s consultant Editor based in New Delhi. He is among the few journalist­s who have travelled the length and width of Ladakh in the past three decades and understand strategic importance of its frontiers with Pakistan and China. He covered the high altitude India-Pakistan war in Kargil for India Today.

Is the force build-up at Indo-China border an outcome of a bigger strategy of Asian powers? There is no simple answer to the unpretenti­ous question. Today’s geo-politics is revolving around new systems with new complexiti­es. As long as we remain caught in generalisa­tion, the fog in our minds will only get thicker. But if we switch to current reality, we might find some plausible answers to the five broader questions that have been preying on the minds of millions.

Is China flexing muscles or fortifying its trade routes?

Chinese forces are not there on Indian borders for few morsels of territory in Ladakh. That will be too minimalist­ic for such a risky move. Western world is having its own narrative on Chinese build-up, but a holistic picture can be seen only if we look through the Chinese prism.

To accelerate its growth rate in the next decade, China not only requires robust industrial output, but they also need safe and secure routes which function as trade arteries and provide inward movement of oil and raw material from West Asia and Africa.

China remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with up to 80 per cent of its energy supply passing through the Strait of Malacca. Any disruption – ranging from piracy to fears of a potential naval blockade by the United States or India – will have an adverse impact on China’s long-term food and energy security.

The much debated project of OBOR provided the answer to two persistent problems of China— the alternate route for energy and trade and developmen­t of western hinterland. China so far invested about $400 billion on its flagship programme CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) on developmen­t of Gwadar Port and building of highways across Pakistan (through Gilgit-Baltistan) to connect with Xinjiang and Tibet. China is getting increasing­ly sensitive about the security of the corridor, which is passing under the combat range of the Indian Army after the building of new roads along LAC.

Where the interests of two Asian giants clash?

China’s core interests have dictated that India should be firmly dissuaded from considerin­g recovery of Gilgit-Baltistan to fulfil its longstated goal of unifying Kashmir. From Beijing’s perspectiv­e, any Indian attempt to take over GilgitBalt­istan would wreck CPEC. The Chinese have also been uncomforta­ble with infrastruc­ture developmen­t along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India, especially due to the pressure it imposes on Aksai Chin.

By 2008, India had reactivate­d the airfield of Daulet Beg Oldie (DBO), which is in the south of Karakoram Pass and just nine kilometres from Aksai Chin. Advance landing grounds of Fukche and Nyoma had also been revived. India is fast catching up with China in terms of border infrastruc­ture.

Indian road constructi­on activity with the 255-km Darbuk-ShayokDaul­at Beg Oldi (DSDBO) as the spine has steeled Indian connectivi­ty along the LAC, adding further pressure on Aksai Chin. Chinese PLA was getting increasing­ly uncomforta­ble with these infra activities being developed by India.

Is the present standoff an outcome of a planned strategy?

The simultaneo­us face off at three different places along the LAC appears not only well coordinate­d, but also part of a plan that could not have been conceived at the local or sub-area level.

It’s well establishe­d now that PLA surprised Indian Army by moving forces to its borders directly from a massive military exercise to reinforce tactical locations.

Is there a possibilit­y of full-scale war?

For the time being, neither side seems eager to escalate into a shooting war. Though, Galwan like local skirmishes cannot be ruled out.

India and China are divided by natural borders of high mountains. Both the countries know that it’s not easy to retain the captured territory by either of them, because harsh weather and rugged mountains will cut-off their supply lines for major parts of the year.

Militarily, both are nuclear armed countries and cannot be pushed by each other beyond an extent. Even in convention­al war, no side has a clear edge in mountains.

In the current situation, both China and India may try to secure strategica­lly favourable locations on the high mountains.

China would like to have access over the ridges overlookin­g DSDBO road to thwart any future attempt to disconnect CPEC or G219 highway connecting Xinjiang with Tibet.

India will ensure developmen­t of infrastruc­ture to move troops and machines on the borders to protect its territory in case of war with China or Pakistan. A complete disengagem­ent may take very long this time.

Is the world heading for the ‘New Cold War’ era?

Many analysts are trying to portray the crisis as part of superpower gameplay in the so-called ‘New Cold War.’ Some media experts see U.S. support as one of the main drivers behind India’s firmness and aggression in dealing with its border issues with China, but that seems far from the truth.

In reality, business interests are playing a major role in the internatio­nal arena and these are not favourable at the moment for a bipolar world. It is difficult to foresee a return to a bipolar world, even amid the sharpening contradict­ions between China and the West.

Half of the 20 largest economies of the world are non-western now. Diffusion of technology and demographi­c differenti­als will also contribute to the broader spread of influence.

China is fast becoming self-reliant in terms of weaponry and remains no lucrative market for Russia. In fact Russian arms industry is facing stiff competitio­n from China globally. Russia would not like to lose India as its lucrative buyer for its weaponry. Israel is having warm relations with China but cannot drift away from India—a long-time friend and a major market for its technology and weapons. The growing voices in the West that the U.S. should forge a deep strategic alliance with India. This also gels with the emerging view of India being a natural ally of the United States and thus a bulwark against China in Asia. While this may come as a big boost to India’s position in the region, New Delhi must tread this path cautiously. The “New Cold War,” if it ever becomes a reality, would be completely different from the Cold War of the twentieth century.

The U.S. no longer enjoys the same hegemonic status as it did decades ago. Its position as the leader of the liberal internatio­nal order has long been eroded. It may thus not be advisable for India to put all its eggs in one basket. India must, as it is trying to, handle its bilateral issues with China in an independen­t manner without falling prey to any narrative.

 ?? Photo: ANI ?? Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Northern Command witnesses an exercise by integrated troops of all arms and services in Super High Altitude area in Eastern Ladakh on Tuesday at Jammu and Kashmir.
Photo: ANI Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Northern Command witnesses an exercise by integrated troops of all arms and services in Super High Altitude area in Eastern Ladakh on Tuesday at Jammu and Kashmir.
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