Ukraine’s choices for its fu­ture: 3 sce­na­rii

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When two po­pu­la­tions live to­ge­ther, some dif­ferent ways out are to be ta­ken in­to ac­count. The Rus­sian threat is han­ging over Ukraine.

1/ A fe­de­ra­tion

This sce­na­rio would re­duce the Pre­sident’s po­wers and would change the Cons­ti­tu­tion to bring the re­gions to a self-go­vern­ment as the re­volt as­ked. But, this ins­ti­tu­tio­nal so­lu­tion doesn’t solve all the pro­blems. For example in Bel­gium, it took 249 days to form a go­vern­ment in 2010 (194 days in 2007).

2/ 2 coun­tries

This sce­na­rio was the choice of the po­pu­la­tion of the ex-Tche­co­slo­va­kia in 1992. But this coun­try was crea­ted by the dis­so­lu­tion of the Aus­tro-Hun­ga­rian Em­pire in 1918. Ukraine is an old coun­try un­like Tche­co­slo­va­kia. And Rus­sia used to in­fluence Ukraine since the 17th cen­tu­ry. So, this so­lu­tion could bring Rus­sia to an­nex the Eas­tern coun­try as it did with Cri­mea now. But it hasn’t been consul­ted by all Ukrai­niens.

3/ Ukraine as a mem­ber State of Eu­ro­pean Union

This sce­na­rio could bring in­to conflict UE with Rus­sia. And EU is in fa­vor of pea­ce­ful so­lu­tions. It is un­li­ke­ly to come or in a ve­ry long time. In March 2014, Rus­sians came in Cri­mea. But EU hasn’t the po­wer to in­ter­fere today (no com­mon ar­my, EU isn’t a fe­de­ra­tion).

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