Losing the war against climate change
Un point sur le changement climatique et les actions menées à l’échelle mondiale.
Nous venons d’assister à des événements climatiques exceptionnels à l’échelle mondiale : des incendies destructeurs qui ont ravagé une partie de la Californie, de la Grèce ou encore de la Suède, des températures record enregistrées aux quatre coins du globe et une sécheresse prolongée. D’après les experts, ces évènements devraient s’intensifier lors des prochaines décennies, notamment sous l’effet du changement climatique d’origine humaine. Quel plan pour la planète ?
Earth is smouldering. From Seattle to Siberia this summer, flames have consumed swathes of the northern hemisphere. One of 18 wildfires that swept through California, among the worst in the state’s history, generated such heat that it created its own weather. Roughly 125 have died in Japan as the result of a heatwave that pushed temperatures in Tokyo above 40°C for the first time. 2. Such calamities, once considered freakish, are now commonplace. Scientists have long cautioned that, as the planet warms—it is roughly 1°C hotter today than before the industrial age’s first furnaces were lit—weather patterns will go berserk. An early analysis has found that this sweltering European summer would have been less than half as likely were it not for human-induced global warming. 3. Yet as the impact of climate change becomes more evident, so too does the scale of the challenge ahead. Three years after countries vowed in Paris to keep warming “well below” 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse-gas emissions are up again. So are investments in oil and gas. In 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coal rose. Subsidies for renewables, such as wind and solar power, are dwindling in many places and investment has stalled; climatefriendly nuclear power is expensive and unpopular. It is tempting to think these are temporary setbacks and that mankind, with its instinct for self-preservation, will muddle through to a victory over global warming. In fact, it is losing the war.
4. Insufficient progress is not to say no progress at all. As solar panels, wind turbines and other low-carbon technologies become cheaper and more efficient, their use has surged. Last year the number of electric cars sold around the world passed 1m. In some sunny and blustery places renewable power now costs less than coal.
5. Public concern is picking up. A poll last year of 38 countries found that 61% of people see climate change as a big threat; only the terrorists of Islamic State inspired more fear. In the West campaigning investors talk of divesting from companies that make their living from coal and oil. Despite President Donald Trump’s decision to yank America out of the Paris deal, many American cities and states have reaffirmed their commitment
4. is not to say... ne signifie pas... / solar panel panneau solaire / wind turbine éolienne / lowcarbon à faibles émissions de carbone / to surge augmenter considérablement / blustery (très) venteux. 5. concern inquiétude, préoccupation / to pick up ici, gagner du terrain / poll sondage / to campaign faire campagne, militer / to divest from se désengager de / to yank out ici, sortir / Paris deal accord de Paris sur le climat (adopté en déc. 2015) / commitment engagement / to it. Even some of the sceptic-in-chief’s fellow Republicans appear less averse to tackling the problem. Optimists say that decarbonisation is within reach. Yet, it is proving extraordinarily difficult.
A FUEL’S PARADISE
6. One reason is soaring energy demand, especially in developing Asia. In 2006-16, as Asia’s emerging economies forged ahead, their energy consumption rose by 40%. The use of coal, easily the dirtiest fossil fuel, grew at an annual rate of 3.1%. Use of cleaner natural gas grew by 5.2% and of oil by 2.9%. Fossil fuels are easier to hook up to today’s grids than renewables that depend on the sun shining and the wind blowing. Even as green fund managers threaten to pull back from oil companies, state-owned behemoths in the Middle East and Russia see Asian demand as a compelling reason to invest.
7. The second reason is economic and political inertia. The more fossil fuels a country consumes, the harder it is to wean itself off them. Powerful lobbies, and the voters who back them, entrench coal in the energy mix. Reshaping existing ways of doing things can take years. In 2017 Britain enjoyed its first coal-free day since igniting the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s. Coal generates not merely 80% of India’s electricity, but also underpins the economies of some of its poorest states.
8. Last is the technical challenge of stripping carbon out of industries beyond power generation. Steel, cement, farming, transport and other forms of economic activity account for over half of global carbon emissions. They are technically harder to clean up than power generation and are protected by vested industrial interests. Meanwhile, scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere, which climate models imply is needed on a vast scale to meet the Paris target, attracts even less attention.
9. The world is not short of ideas to realise the Paris goal. Around 70 countries or regions, responsible for one-fifth of all emissions, now price carbon. Technologists beaver away on sturdier grids, zero-carbon steel, even carbon-negative cement, whose production absorbs more CO2 than it releases. Yet none of these fixes will come to much unless climate listlessness is tackled head on. Western countries must honour their commitment in the Paris agreement to help poorer places adapt to a warmer Earth. Politicians have an essential role to play in making the case for reform. Perhaps global warming will help them fire up the collective will. Sadly, the world looks poised to get a lot hotter first.
A firefighter trying to save a home on Dessie Drive in Lakeport, California, July 31, 2018.