Now near 100 mil­lion bpd, when will oil de­mand peak?

Stabroek News Sunday - - CLAS­SI­FIEDS -

car­bons such as oil, gas and coal is in­creas­ing, few an­a­lysts be­lieve oil de­mand will de­crease in the next decade.

If the cur­rent mix of poli­cies con­tin­ues, the IEA ex­pects world oil de­mand to rise for at least the next 20 years, head­ing for 125 mil­lion bpd around mid-cen­tury.

Oil de­mand would rise less quickly if gov­ern­ments moved some way to­ward re­duc­ing the use of car­bon­based fu­els, putting into action al­ready-an­nounced plans, the IEA says.

But it warns gov­ern­ments that ex­ist­ing plans are un­likely to make a huge dent in car­bon emis­sions, and only a thor­ough change in en­ergy use will bring down oil de­mand.

The prob­lem for the coun­tries the IEA ad­vises is that they are no longer pri­mar­ily re­spon­si­ble for ris­ing oil con­sump­tion.

While oil de­mand in the big, de­vel­oped economies has stalled, con­sump­tion is in­creas­ing rapidly in coun­tries out­side the Or­gan­i­sa­tion for Eco­nomic Co-op­er­a­tion and De­vel­op­ment.

Non-OECD oil de­mand has al­most dou­bled over the last two decades as new in­dus­tries de­velop in coun­tries across Asia, Cen­tral and South Amer­ica and Africa.

The re­search unit of China Na­tional Pe­tro­leum Corp pre­dicts China’s oil de­mand will top out at around 13.8 mil­lion bpd as early as 2030.

Some an­a­lysts ar­gue world oil de­mand could come down much faster if there were more ef­fi­ciency gains in ve­hi­cles, greater mar­ket pen­e­tra­tion by elec­tric cars com­bined with lower eco­nomic growth and higher fuel prices.

In­vest­ment in so­lar power is ris­ing rapidly and even Saudi Ara­bia, the de-facto leader of the Or­ga­ni­za­tion of the Pe­tro­leum Ex­port­ing Coun­tries, is sup­port­ing the in­dus­try, cre­at­ing the world’s big­gest so­lar power project.

Gold­man Sachs has said oil de­mand could peak by 2024 un­der some cir­cum­stances, but slow adop­tion of new tech­nol­ogy in less-de­vel­oped economies could de­lay the change.

Con­sul­tancy Wood Macken­zie is some­where in the mid­dle of the range, ex­pect­ing de­mand for trans­port to flat­line from 2030 and over­all use to peak in 2036. Its chief econ­o­mist, Ed Rawle, ar­gues a fall in oil de­mand is com­ing, what­ever hap­pens:

“The signs of peak oil de­mand re­ally are there into the fu­ture. It’s a ques­tion of when, not if.”

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