Global vehicle sales to fall by 2040, but oil demand to rise
Global vehicle sales will decline over the next two decades as consumers embrace ondemand ride services like Uber, but demand for oil will keep rising, according to a study released Tuesday.
Another counterintuitive finding from the study by IHS Markit was that more than 80 per cent of the vehicles sold worldwide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fuelled combustion engine.
Annual vehicle sales in the United States, Europe, China and India will decline over the next 23 years to 54 million in 2040, as total miles travelled rises 65 per cent to around 11 billion miles a year, the study projected. About 80 million vehicles a year are sold currently in those regions.
Although there will be fewer cars sold, demand for petroleum, especially for non-transportation uses, is expected to rise, from the current 98 million barrels a day to 115 million barrels a day in 2040. According to IHS Markit, which provides economic forecasts and data to the global energy and automotive markets, battery-powered allelectric vehicles will account for about 19 per cent of sales by 2040. This compares with an estimated 14 per cent of production by 2030 in a forecast by Boston Consulting Group on November 2.
IHS Markit forecast that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles — those with electric motors and combustion engines — will account for another 14 per cent of sales in 2040. REUTERS