Global ve­hi­cle sales to fall by 2040, but oil de­mand to rise


Global ve­hi­cle sales will de­cline over the next two decades as con­sumers em­brace on­de­mand ride ser­vices like Uber, but de­mand for oil will keep ris­ing, ac­cord­ing to a study re­leased Tues­day.

Another coun­ter­in­tu­itive find­ing from the study by IHS Markit was that more than 80 per cent of the ve­hi­cles sold world­wide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fu­elled com­bus­tion en­gine.

An­nual ve­hi­cle sales in the United States, Europe, China and India will de­cline over the next 23 years to 54 mil­lion in 2040, as to­tal miles trav­elled rises 65 per cent to around 11 bil­lion miles a year, the study pro­jected. About 80 mil­lion ve­hi­cles a year are sold cur­rently in those re­gions.

Al­though there will be fewer cars sold, de­mand for petroleum, es­pe­cially for non-trans­porta­tion uses, is ex­pected to rise, from the cur­rent 98 mil­lion bar­rels a day to 115 mil­lion bar­rels a day in 2040. Ac­cord­ing to IHS Markit, which pro­vides eco­nomic fore­casts and data to the global en­ergy and au­to­mo­tive mar­kets, bat­tery-pow­ered al­l­elec­tric ve­hi­cles will ac­count for about 19 per cent of sales by 2040. This com­pares with an es­ti­mated 14 per cent of pro­duc­tion by 2030 in a fore­cast by Bos­ton Con­sult­ing Group on Novem­ber 2.

IHS Markit fore­cast that plug-in hy­brid elec­tric ve­hi­cles — those with elec­tric mo­tors and com­bus­tion en­gines — will ac­count for another 14 per cent of sales in 2040. REUTERS

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