air cargo shows slight re­cov­ery

Cargo Talk - - Cover Story -

Ac­cord­ing to the re­cent IATA study, air­line cargo busi­nesses are start­ing to see a slightly bet­ter de­mand en­vi­ron­ment and fur­ther im­prove­ment in for­ward-look­ing in­di­ca­tors, but con­tin­ued in­creases in ca­pac­ity have kept down­ward pres­sure on yields and rev­enues. Air freight growth has im­proved in 2013 com­pared to 2012, in line with pos­i­tive cycli­cal de­vel­op­ments in busi­ness con­di­tions. Busi­ness con­fi­dence has been on the rise since the start of Q3. Con­sumer con­fi­dence in Europe is at the high­est lev­els since 2011, and stronger eco­nomic per­for­mance has stopped ear­lier de­clines in Chi­nese con­sumer con­fi­dence. Th­ese de­vel­op­ments have sup­ported a rise in de­mand for air-freighted com­modi­ties like semi-con­duc­tors. But ex­pected gains have been lim­ited by an on-shoring of pro­duc­tion, which has lim­ited in­ter­na­tional trade growth. More­over, con­tin­ued in­creases in ca­pac­ity have coun­tered the mod­est im­prove­ments in de­mand, caus­ing yields to de­cline. This trend could con­tinue as new air­craft de­liv­er­ies come into ser­vice in 2014. Cargo heads sur­veyed in Oc­to­ber 2013 re­main broadly op­ti­mistic, ex­pect­ing yields to im­prove slightly over the next 12 months, sup­ported by views of an in­crease in traf­fic growth.

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