Elec­tric car’ suc­cess wave may cause short-term peak in global oil de­mand – pre­dicts Gold­man Sachs

Chemical Industry Digest - - News & Views -

Gold­man

Sachs re­leased a re­search note pre­dict­ing that global oil de­mand could reach its peak as soon as the year 2024. The re­port ar­gues that in­creased pro­duc­tion and sales of elec­tric cars, slow­ing eco­nomic growth and in­creased fuel costs could sig­nif­i­cantly drive de­mands across the globe.

Gold­man Sachs pre­dicts the num­ber of elec­tric cars on the street glob­ally in 2030 to grow from 2 mil­lion (in 2016) to over 83 rmil­lion.

The an­nual growth of oil de­mand from 2017 to 2022 will av­er­age at 1.2% and slow to 0.7% by 2025 and 0.4% by 2030.

From now un­til 2030, trans­porta­tion will add less to the growth in de­mand for oil, while the petro­chem­i­cal in­dus­try will take the lead in con­tribut­ing to new de­mand for oil.

Gold­man Sachs be­lieves there will be a glut of re­fined oil prod­ucts over the next five years as a re­sult of in­creas­ing pro­duc­tion ca­pac­ity and the slow­ing of de­mand, which should lead to lower mar­gins.

“Re­fin­ery clo­sures may oc­cur in de­vel­oped mar­kets, with new ca­pac­ity open­ing near de­mand cen­ters (chiefly in Asia),” the re­port stated.

The In­ter­na­tional Mar­itime Or­gan­i­sa­tion’s 2020 sul­fur limit is set to se­ri­ously im­pact the use of high sul­phur fuel and the re­fin­ing in­dus­try. If the In­ter­na­tional Mar­itime Or­gan­i­sa­tion’s 2020 lim­its are fully im­ple­mented it will re­sult in in­creased de­mand for diesel and widen the sweet-sour crude dif­fer­en­tial, said Gold­man Sachs.

Jet fuel is set to see its de­mand rise with the growth of avi­a­tion mainly in the de­vel­op­ing world.

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