Expect normal rains from Northeast monsoon:IMD
FORECAST AUGURS WELL FOR TN
New Delhi: The Northeast monsoon, that accounts for 30% of rains in south Peninsula, is “most likely” going to be normal with a tendency to be in the positive side of the normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Saturday. Between October to December season, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, South interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala receive 332.1mm rains, which is the long-period average (LPA) based on historical data.
The northeast monsoon will also augur well for Tamil Nadu that received poor rais from the southwest monsoon.
“The 2018 Northeast monsoon seasonal rainfall over Tamil Nadu is most likely to be above normal of LPA). The long period average (LPA) of the Northeast monsoon seasonal rainfall over Tamil Nadu for the base period, 1951-2000 is 438.2 mm,” the IMD forecast said.
Weather models, including IMD’s monsoon mission climate forecast system, have indicated the development of a weak El Nino during this year’s northeast monsoon. There is a 70% probability of development of EL Nino’s development and the conditions are likely to continue in the first quarter of next year. El Nino conditions, which result from unusual warming of Pacific Ocean waters, is detrimental to southwest monsoon rains and slows it down. However, it has an exactly opposite impact on northeast monsoon and conditions become favourable for good rains.
Over the past two years, Northeast monsoon has been below normal. In 2016, it was the worst in a century and last year the seasonal deficit was 10%. The onset of the northeast branch of monsoon usually begins from October 20. Tamil Nadu, though, has received good rainfall over the past few days.
While the northeast monsoon is around the corner, IMD said that southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing. As per IMD, it has withdrawn from parts of Rajasthan, Kutch and the north Arabian Sea. In the coming 2-3 days, it will start its retreat from Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and a few parts of Gujarat.