Ex­pect nor­mal rains from North­east mon­soon:IMD

FORE­CAST AUGURS WELL FOR TN

DNA Sunday (Mumbai) - - INDI - DNA Cor­re­spon­dent

New Delhi: The North­east mon­soon, that ac­counts for 30% of rains in south Penin­sula, is “most likely” go­ing to be nor­mal with a ten­dency to be in the pos­i­tive side of the nor­mal, the In­dia Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal De­part­ment (IMD) said in its fore­cast on Satur­day. Be­tween Oc­to­ber to De­cem­ber sea­son, Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, South in­te­rior Kar­nataka, Ray­alaseema and Ker­ala re­ceive 332.1mm rains, which is the long-pe­riod av­er­age (LPA) based on his­tor­i­cal data.

The north­east mon­soon will also au­gur well for Tamil Nadu that re­ceived poor rais from the south­west mon­soon.

“The 2018 North­east mon­soon sea­sonal rain­fall over Tamil Nadu is most likely to be above nor­mal of LPA). The long pe­riod av­er­age (LPA) of the North­east mon­soon sea­sonal rain­fall over Tamil Nadu for the base pe­riod, 1951-2000 is 438.2 mm,” the IMD fore­cast said.

Weather models, in­clud­ing IMD’s mon­soon mis­sion cli­mate fore­cast sys­tem, have in­di­cated the de­vel­op­ment of a weak El Nino dur­ing this year’s north­east mon­soon. There is a 70% prob­a­bil­ity of de­vel­op­ment of EL Nino’s de­vel­op­ment and the con­di­tions are likely to con­tinue in the first quar­ter of next year. El Nino con­di­tions, which re­sult from unusual warm­ing of Pa­cific Ocean wa­ters, is detri­men­tal to south­west mon­soon rains and slows it down. How­ever, it has an ex­actly op­po­site im­pact on north­east mon­soon and con­di­tions be­come favourable for good rains.

Over the past two years, North­east mon­soon has been be­low nor­mal. In 2016, it was the worst in a cen­tury and last year the sea­sonal deficit was 10%. The on­set of the north­east branch of mon­soon usu­ally be­gins from Oc­to­ber 20. Tamil Nadu, though, has re­ceived good rain­fall over the past few days.

While the north­east mon­soon is around the cor­ner, IMD said that south­west mon­soon has be­gun with­draw­ing. As per IMD, it has with­drawn from parts of Ra­jasthan, Kutch and the north Ara­bian Sea. In the com­ing 2-3 days, it will start its re­treat from Pun­jab, Haryana, Delhi, Ut­tar Pradesh, Mad­hya Pradesh and a few parts of Gu­jarat.

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