India faces a droughtlike situation
After 24 per cent above normal rainfall in June, the India Meteorological Department has warned of an eight per cent deficit monsoon in July. The forecast also points to 10 per cent less rainfall in August. For those who track India's drought history and the agricultural cycle, deficit rain in July is always a cause for great worry. In July, the country receives the highest rainfall in the four-month season. An analysis of the country's six worst droughts during 1877-2005 shows that deficit rainfall in July was a common factor. It is very unlikely that the remaining months can make up for such a deficit. In case of deficit rainfall in June, the chances of a deficit overall monsoon were around 77 per cent. But if July experienced a deficit monsoon, the chances of a deficient monsoon rose to over 90 per cent.