Power deficit falls to new low

Electrical Monitor - - SECTOR UPDATE -

P2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

April-Dec

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Dr M.S.Ka­pa­dia ower sec­tor con­sti­tutes a shin­ing ex­am­ple of what a sta­ble and fo­cused govern­ment can do in im­prov­ing econ­omy feat. Thus, be­cause of healthy growth in ca­pac­ity ad­di­tion and more im­por­tantly in gen­er­a­tion, the power sec­tor has ceased to be a ma­jor block to fa­cil­i­tat­ing eco­nomic ac­tiv­ity, go­ing by re­cent trends in power deficit. The av­er­age deficit which peaked at 10-11 per cent in 2008-09 and 2009-10, eased to 8.5-8.7 per cent in the next three years. The deficit fell to 4.2 per cent in FY14 more due to a stag­nant econ­omy. The FY15 saw the short­age fall to 3.6 per cent, which was made pos­si­ble by a stronger growth in gen­er­a­tion (ex-bus), and was not­with­stand­ing a bounce-back in re­quire­ment. The cur­rent fis­cal till De­cem­ber has seen the deficit fall to a new low of 2.2 per cent, from 3.9 per cent in the first nine months of 2014-15 and 4.4 per cent in this pe­riod two years back. In fact, power gen­er­a­tion has been out­pac­ing de­mand growth since the end of FY13.

By the way, even as the de­cline in power deficit in the medium term re­flects ro­bust growth in ca­pac­ity and gen­er­a­tion, rel­a­tive to de­mand from con­sum­ing sec­tors, the drop in the deficit dur­ing April-De­cem­ber could point to a slower growth in power con­sum­ing sec­tors, given a marked re­tard in the growth of gen­er­a­tion dur­ing the pe­riod. Re­port­edly, power util­i­ties find power off take in­ad­e­quate to ab­sorb their gen­er­a­tion po­ten­tial with the re­sult that sev­eral gen­er­at­ing sta­tions have to op­er­ate at sub-op­ti­mal lev­els. Thus, the ag­gre­gate PLF at ther­mal sta­tions has gone down to 62 per cent in De­cem­ber from 65 per cent a year ago, and around 72 per­cent from May 2012.

Ex-bus avail­abil­ity is broadly gross gen­er­a­tion less aux­il­iary con­sump­tion in the gen­er­at­ing sta­tion.

Re­quire­ment

737,052

774,324

830,300

861,591

937,199

995,557

1,002,045

1,068,923

754,332

816,848

837,958

Avail­abil­ity

664,660

689,021

746,493

788,355

857,886

908,652

959,614

1,030,785

720,782

785,032

837,958

Deficit

72,392

85,303

83,807

73,236

79,313

86,905

42,431

38,138

33,550

31,816

18,733

9.8

11

10.1

8.5

8.5

8.7

4.2

3.6

4.4

3.9

2.2

Intra-pe­riod, deficit was around 2.2 per cent av­er­age dur­ing Q1, 2.5 per cent dur­ing Q2 and 1.8 per cent over Q3 com­pris­ing Oc­to­ber-De­cem­ber, which was made pos­si­ble by a slow­down in the econ­omy over the quar­ter.

The peak power de­mand met/sup­ply deficit was as­sessed at 3.2 per cent dur­ing April-De­cem­ber, 4.7 per cent a year ago, and 4.1-4.2 per cent in the sim­i­lar pe­riod in ear­lier two fis­cals.

North­ern re­gion ex­pe­ri­enced 4.9 per cent deficit dur­ing April-De­cem­ber 2015, im­prov­ing from 6.6 per cent in the sim­i­lar pe­riod a year ago. This was due to 12.8 per cent deficit in Ut­tar Pradesh and 15.4 per cent in Jammu & Kash­mir; the other states in the re­gion could broadly meet their power re­quire­ment.

EX-BUS POWER AVAIL­ABIL­ITY & RE­QUIRE­MENT

(MLN UNITS)

TOP SEVEN STATES IN TERMS OF POWER RE­QUIRE­MENTS DUR­ING APRIL-DE­CEM­BER 2015

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