WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PIC­TURE

Flash News Investment - - TECHNICALS -

This time Septem­ber de­riv­a­tives ex­piry brought in buoy­ancy in the mar­kets wherein bench­mark in­dices strived to bounce back. Mar­kets re­bounded af­ter tak­ing sup­port at cru­cial tech­ni­cal lev­els of 9685 and 31081 in Nifty and Sen­sex, re­spec­tively. Ro­bust macroe­co­nomic data at the start of Oc­to­ber 2017, in­clud­ing bet­ter-than-ex­pected auto sales num­bers fu­elled by launches and fes­tive de­mand. Tata Mo­tors and Maruti posted 18% and 10% growth in Septem­ber as com­pared to the cor­re­spond­ing month of 2016.

Core sec­tor grew 4.9%, fol­lowed by man­u­fac­tur­ing and ser­vices PMIs hit­ting above the min­i­mum ex­pan­sion num­ber of 50. How­ever, ahead of ris­ing in­fla­tion and fall­ing eco­nomic growth fore­casts, RBI main­tained rates this time in its pol­icy re­view. Now, cor­po­rate earn­ings are at the doorstep and mar­kets are likely to re­act to the re­sults of ma­jor in­dex stocks.

Broader mar­kets out­paced bench­mark in­dices dur­ing the pe­riod, where Mid-cap and Small-cap in­dices gained 2.5 per cent and 3.2 per cent, re­spec­tively. Con­sid­er­ing sec­tor-wise per­for­mance, Realty in­dex re­mained the high­est gainer with 4.3 per cent gains, while Auto and Metal fol­lowed with 2 per cent plus gains each. Con­sid­er­ing the lat­est ses­sion, yet again Realty saved mar­kets from fall­ing fur­ther, gain­ing 0.9 per cent. De­spite weak­ness in bench­mark in­dices, mar­ket bias re­mained pos­i­tive with 826 ad­vances and 637 de­clines on the NSE.

Nifty, af­ter reg­is­ter­ing swing low of 9687.55, wit­nessed an up­move and logged four con­sec­u­tive ses­sions of gains. How­ever, Nifty has been fac­ing strong re­sis­tance in the area of 9,930-9,950 as 50-day EMA is placed in this zone and 50% re­trace­ment of the re­cent fall stands at 9,933. Go­ing for­ward, if Nifty man­ages to sus­tain above 9,930-9,950 on a clos­ing ba­sis, it may scale up to the lev­els of 9,990-10,000 as 61.8% re­trace­ment is placed in this zone. On the down­side, sup­ports are seen at 9,850 and 9,800 lev­els. A de­ci­sive breach of 9,800 may open up for cor­rec­tion up to lev­els of 9,740 and 9,680 in the short term.

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