WHAT LIES AHEAD : NEAR-TERM PIC­TURE

Flash News Investment - - TECHNICALS -

SPOT NIFTY : In­dian bench­mark indices were off their peak lev­els amid Au­gust F&O ex­piry as the high weigh­tage stocks wit­nessed profit-book­ing. On the macroe­co­nomic front, the In­dian ru­pee de­pre­ci­at­ing to its all-time low of 70.85 with a bounce back in the Brent oil above USD 77.76 level spread some cau­tious­ness in the mar­kets. A range-bound volatil­ity is ex­pected to con­tinue in the near term with the re­lease of macroe­co­nomic num­bers, which may in­flu­ence RBI’s de­ci­sion in the up­com­ing pol­icy meet. On the broader front, Mid-cap and Small-cap indices out­per­formed the bench­mark indices and surged more than 1% each. The metal sec­tor, which had surged more than 7% in the last five trad­ing ses­sions, be­came mar­ket saviour and re­frained the indices from cor­rect­ing. Power sec­tor fol­lowed suit and surged 3.8%.

Tech­ni­cally, Nifty hit a Doji at all-time high lev­els on Au­gust 28 and thereby wit­nessed some correction in the next two trad­ing ses­sions. How­ever, talk­ing about the near term, Nifty took sup­port at 50% re­trace­ment of the prior short rally from 11532 to 11760 and bounced back a lit­tle. Hence, if the bounce con­tin­ues, we hold 11700-11760 as the re­sis­tances, fol­lowed by 11840. How­ever, if some more profit-book­ing con­tin­ues and Nifty turns south­ward again, we hold 11620 fol­lowed by 11530 as the sup­ports, if 11640 is breached on a clos­ing ba­sis. NIFTY DE­RIV­A­TIVES: The In­dian Volatil­ity In­dex (VIX), a gauge for mar­ket’s short term ex­pec­ta­tion of volatil­ity, wit­nessed mod­est de­cline of 0.24 per cent to 12.41. Nifty Septem­ber 2018 fu­ture last price stood at 11,739.50 at a pre­mium of 62.70 points over the spot clos­ing of 11,676.80. Nifty Oc­to­ber 2018 fu­ture last price stood at 11,769.95 at a pre­mium of 93.15 point over spot clos­ing of 11,676.80. The Nifty Put-Call Ra­tio (PCR) Open In­ter­est-wise stood at 1.16 for Septem­ber month con­tract. Among Nifty calls, 11,800 Strike Price from the Septem­ber month ex­piry was the most ac­tive Call. Among Nifty Puts, 11,700 Strike Price from the Septem­ber month ex­piry was the most ac­tive Put. For the Septem­ber series, the max­i­mum OI out­stand­ing for Puts was at 11,000 strike price and that for Calls, it was at 11,800 strike price.

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