India must overcome the pandemic, security threat

Disasters and external aggression end civilisations. But there is an opportunity for India to emerge stronger

The are three reasons why the world’s oldest and most powerful civilisations generally ended — epidemics, natural disasters, or foreign invasions. An example is the Indus Valley civilisation; it had magnificent cities, architecture, maritime, and overland trade; it was thriving well before the birth of Jesus Christ. Yet, it came to a sudden end. Scholars attribute this variously to a natural disaster or an external attack.

India is grappling with both at the moment — the Covid-19 pandemic and Chinese aggression on the border. Let us look at natural disasters first. The havoc caused by the coronavirus continues unabated, though the pressures of the lockdown have begun to ease up. Even in these moments of despair, there are some rays of hope. Immediately after the coronavirus outbreak began, people were fearful about its repercussions thanks to mixed signals from the political establishment. While there is official determination to combat the virus, we are hobbled by our limited health facilities. In such a situation, political leaders should refrain from any blame game, and many have risen to the occasion.

Let us look at the three leaders who are the most strident critics of the central government. Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal won his last two elections amid the Modi wave, which was sweeping the country. When the pandemic began to spread in Delhi, disputes between the Centre and the state government peaked. But as the situation deteriorated, Kejriwal and the Centre started cooperating. Home minister Amit Shah took command, and on several occasions, Kejriwal tweeted his appreciation and gratitude to the Centre for its support.

Similarly, West Bengal chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, was initially very vocal on the lockdown, operation of trains, and central subsidies. But now, we hardly hear criticism from her. Maharashtra chief minister, Uddhav Thackeray, broke away from Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) only recently. There was bitterness on both sides. Thousands of migrant labourers gathered at Bandra station after the first lockdown ended on April 14. In many parts of Mumbai, especially in the slums of Dharavi, Covid-19 began to spread rapidly. Here too, Amit Shah took the initiative and both the governments were on the same page. Uddhav’s son and cabinet member Aditya Thackeray tweeted: “The Centre has taken immediate cognisance of the issue and is assisting the state actively. I’m thankful to PM & HM for understanding the situation while trying to ensure the safety of home states of migrants.” The kind of positivity political parties have shown after the initial setbacks has strengthened the Constitution’s federal nature.

Is that enough? Beyond this crisis, India has to start thinking big in terms of its future security. The jury is still out on whether the virus is natural or man-made. Even if it is natural, there is no doubt that a totalitarian government or terrorist group can use it as a weapon in the future. India has to prepare itself for the eventuality of a bio-terror attack even though that prospect seems distant at the moment. We have to strengthen our health services and make them easily accessible. The good news is that the Finance Commission, headed by NK Singh, has started preparing a proposal to increase health expenditure to 2.1% of the Gross Domestic Product in the next five years. Now it is the turn of the state governments.

On the external front, the recent incursions on our borders by the Chinese army tell us two things. The first is that our defence system is not as effective as it should be. Second, Indians easily forget our defeats. The generation which grew up in the 1960s was apprehensive about China in the early stages. The defeat of 1962 strengthened this sentiment. What happened in the Galwan Valley this time has shown that even though India is far more powerful today than it was in 1962, it still falls short of the mark. To change this, it is necessary to strengthen the economy. Most strategic successes in the world have been buttressed by economic successes. An aggressive China is more proud of its economy than it is of its army. Beijing’s ruling class seems to feel that the time has come to overpower, not just its immediate neighbours, but even take on the United States (US).

India needs to reduce its economic dependence on China. Just as the wounds of the 1962 war eventually healed, so will the scars of Galwan. We have to look inward at our traditional industries to strengthen our economy. After the coronavirus crisis, immigration laws will be made more stringent across the world. It may result in the flight of talent to greener pastures. This means that India needs to provide avenues for talent to flourish internally. It was in order to dominate the erstwhile Soviet Union in the 1980s that the US, and other western countries made China the world’s manufacturing hub. Today China and Russia together have become a threat to many countries in the West. This provides an opportunity for India to position itself as an attractive destination for business and services. China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping did this in the 1980s. If China is the world’s factory, then we can become the world’s office, in this era of work-from-home.

If we are able to do so, we, the descendants of the Indus civilisation, will create a new history. We will have turned natural disasters and invasions into opportunities.