‘Extreme weather events may surge in near future’

Frequency and duration of heatwaves and droughts; the area under dry spells, flash floods, urban floods, and short, intense rainfall events; and the probability of cyclones turning into severe storms will all increase in the coming years because of climate change, M Rajeevan Nair, secretary to the ministry of earth sciences, said at the Hindustan Times Environment Conclave on Thursday.

India needs to be ready and come up with specific projection models on how these changes will affect agriculture, health, water resources, energy and other sectors to cope with their impact, Nair said at a session on Climate Change and the Green Economy.

Agreeing with him, Sunita Narain, director general of the

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New Delhi-based advocacy group, the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said the ministry’s study shows that the impact of climate change was intensifying and India needs to emphasise its vulnerability at international negotiations that are expected to gather steam with the US on Monday deciding to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement.

On India’s vulnerability, Nair said, based on the climate change projections and past data, the Indian monsoon is robust, rainy days were declining and dry spells were increasing. India is warming at a pace equal to global warming elsewhere and cold waves were reducing. “This will have a serious impact on agriculture and farmers as areas under drought are likely to increase from the present 15-20% to 25-30% in future. We need to devise ways to cope with these changes.”

India has habitat to support about 10,000 tigers in the country, but tiger numbers are low due to the degradation of forests, and rapid and overlapping of development with tiger lands, wildlife experts said on Thursday at Hindustan Times Environment Conclave.

Anish Andheria, president of the Wildlife Conservation Trust, speaking at a session about finding balance between wildlife protection and development, said India still has habitat for tigers that goes beyond the areas supporting tigers today.

“India has done substantially well in the last All India Tiger Estimation but we have to see how every state performed. Only seven to eight states are responsible for the increase in the numbers, but most states have let down the tiger. This has happened

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largely because of habitat degradation, huge pressure of rapid development, and dependence of people on forests,” he said, adding that country has habitat to support about 10,000 tigers. He said the approximate figures from around 100 years ago show India had 40,000 tigers then, compared to which, the current numbers are very low.

Suggesting solutions to rising human-wildlife conflict, Kanchi Kohli, senior researcher with the Delhi-based the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) said that public participation while making policy decisions was crucial.

“...public interest in environmental policies has increased but along with that there have been aspects like shortening of time for public comments or not having enough public participation for projects near the border areas. But there is no shortcut to good decisions for the long term...,” said Kohli.