Russian Involvement in US Presidential Elections
An overview with regard to key Policy Changes
Hillary Clinton who appeared to be an experienced politician and Mr. Donald Trump, who is popular for his rhetoric speeches, sometimes appearing to be crude and contradictory talked about totally different ideas in determining the role of America in international jurisdiction. As Clinton is having a liberal approach in maintaining international relations, Trump had “First America” approach. The CIA in a secret assessment had stated that the Russian were involved in 2016 Presidential Elections, helping Mr. Trump win. [Secret CIA Assessment says, Russia was trying to help Trump
win White House, Washington Post]. The US government earlier in October publicly announced the involvement of Russia in hacking the Democratic National Committee’s e-mails. This resulted in public release of thousands of e-mails, which included damaging revelations about the Democratic Party including the Hillary Clinton campaign, the party’s nominee.
RUSSIAN INVOLVEMENT IN THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
CIA allegations were based on its most recent analysis performed by the intelligence on the hacking, stating that the Russian hackers breached GOP individuals and organizations before the elections. There were also allegations that some of the entities were connected to the Russian government spreading fake news about Clinton. Investigators also found out digital footprints of the individuals having relations with the Russian government, who were on the hit list of the intelligence agencies’ radar.
Politicians of both the parties have expressed their strong disapproval of the U.S. adversary, where Mr. Trump had bluntly rejected such claims that Russia was involved in such an action for their benefit, and looking at Clinton, she contended that Trump was encouraging Russia. But on the other side, many of the republicans have accepted the intelligence and law official’s claims relating to this incident. Both the parties have claimed for an investigation into the said incident, and the letter had been signed by the top officials of the nation [Russian hacking and the 2016 election: What you need to know, CNN]
OVERVIEW OF THE POLICY CHANGES
One thing was pretty much clear from the campaign of the Republican and Democrats, that the next President would directly or indirectly impact the countries and their economies which have trade relations with the U.S. By the newly developed economic relations and ties, it is very much predicable that relations between India and the U.S. will be less affected as compared to China and Russia. Trade with China and Russia would be drastically affected by the appointment of the new President.
Mr. Trump’s assertion is that U.S. had entered into horrible trade agreements with various nations, especially China. [U.S. elections – Impact on India, China and Russia, Huffington Post]. Moreover, he also asserts that either he will re-negotiate the terms of NAFTA or will break it. Till now, no such policies have been declared for India in the due course. Quoting several World Bank reports and analysis, he said that India will be the fastest growing economy in the next three to five years surpassing China, and therefore there is no need to have improved trade agreements with India.
As far as India is being concerned, it is said that India’s remarkable growth rate is based on various factors. Numerous jobs have been created and many of the corporations are having their hiring plans. Also, there had been substantial increase in the salary in government jobs; the technical industry is attracting more foreign investments in new products, making the service industry more accessible.
Trump’s election will also hit India, as he has expressly pointed out that they are outsourcing work to Indians, while the U.S. has a high unemployment ratio. He proposed 15% tax on companies who outsource their work in other countries and 20% tax for importing goods and services. One of the major area of concern for India, is that our software industry is disproportionately dependent upon the U.S. exports. Currently India’s software services accounts for USD 82 Billion which is being exported to the U.S. Furthermore, Trump had strong views on immigration, i.e. the grant of H-1B visas, which is very important for the Indian software market as our highly talented employees are being hired by the U.S. companies. Many of the big I.T. corporations send their employees on temporary basis to the U.S. for some projects on the H-1B visas, which Trump is planning to scrap off. Eventually we can say that scrapping of H-1B visa is a very big step and there is a strong possibility of this, or a hike in fees of such type of visas can also be presumed.
Russia is another key player for the U.S. as Americans and European sanctions are making it worse for the country to sustain, and their military involvement is an important concern over their economy. As Russia wants to free itself of all the sanctions, and resolve the economy problem, it is in dire need of a U.S. president, with whom it could negotiate it further.
As it was pointed out in some of Trump’s speeches maintaining friendly relations with Russia, one reason might be for reducing international commitments relating to US-NATO allies. He has always challenged the validity of such allies and got to the extent of saying that many of the allies does not deserve to be a part of it. Russia has an interest in this breakdown in that way that it will regain its power and influence over the European countries. Such type of step would be heavily criticized on the international platform by the European countries as well as in the USA, in the sense that in maintaining good terms with Russia, USA surrendered it’s future.
Moreover, it has been said that Trump would like to re-establish the entire government contracts with other countries including military establishment between the two
countries. It has also been predicted that U.S. will try to have more extensive cooperation with Russia in Syria, in curbing out the ISIS and all other such groups.
Among other major probable changes which have been presumed after the Trump’s victory regarding the change in foreign policy, is the one regarding the implementation of the slogan “America First” The approach he overviewed during the election campaign was of the nature of reducing international tension and of looking after their country i.e. the U.S. involvement in tackling the global problems and helping other nations in regards to their economic, political and security matters. There is a strong possibility of reduction of the U.S. defence involvement in the world at large and we may very soon witness a reduction in the military involvement in Japan and South Korea. The newly elected president would also cut down the financial aid provided to the U.S. allies in the Middle Eastern countries.
Trump also cleared his intention for intensifying the bilateral communications with Moscow as it may lead to ease out the sanctions which were introduced by Russia after annexing Crimea and aggression against Ukraine.
In other areas, Trump had shown serious change in the U.S. policy. During his campaign, he was highly critical of actions to mitigate climate change and he was of the view of reviewing the climate change policy. It is expected that Trump and his administration will try to undermine the Paris climate agreement, which would weaken the relationship between the EU and the U.S., and with developing countries, including the least-developed countries most vulnerable to climate change. The most radical potential step would be if the U.S. were to withdraw from the group of signatories of the agreement, which is possible in November 2019, three years after its entry into force.
Despite the prevailing contentions, the allegations made, proved, disproved, it is a matter which involves grave concern of both the countries i.e. Russia and U.S. Barrack Obama in such regard, retaliating on the move of Russia involving into their Presidential elections said that it is something to investigate rather than merely thinking that whether it affected or not.
After assuming the White House from 20 January 2017, Trump seems to plan a quick play on implementing his campaign promises, which includes a reduction of U.S. engagement with other countries and withdrawal from support for free trade. It may also be expected that the new president will be seen as a very difficult partner to negotiate on terms of common point and that less U.S. engagement in solving global problems will adversely affect international relations. It also poses a risk that Russia will fill the place left after a U.S. withdrawal, as he is in desperate need of removing the sanctions being imposed and wants to regain its power and influence amongst the European nations. It is worthy to note the risk associated while formulating the team of administration. That may be the moment when other countries test the assertiveness of the new U.S. government and its willingness to take action. In short, Trump’s win is more likely bring risk and uncertainty in the international forum as well as in the U.S.!