POLL RACE GETS CLOSER FOR RAJE, SHIVRAJ & RAMAN
INDIA TODAY TV POLL Rajasthan CM’s position has weakened MP, C’garh CMs in tough fights KCR far ahead in T’gana
THE BJP faces a neck-and-neck contest in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and a debacle in Rajasthan in the upcoming Assembly elections, according to the Political Stock Exchange (PSE). In Telangana, chief minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao looks set to sweep the December 7 state poll, with 75 per cent voters found to be backing his Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
In what could be a closely fought election, the BJP reserves a 52 per cent chance to retain power in Madhya Pradesh, the PSE data show.
In neighbouring Chhattisgarh, chief minister Raman Singh stands a 55 per cent probability to win a majority again, but his Rajasthan counterpart Vasundhara Raje confronts a sticky
wicket in her bid for another term, with only 35 per cent of stakes showing up in her favour, the survey revealed.
The vote-share gap between the incumbent BJP and its rival Congress is expected to swing between one and three per cent.
According to the PSE, the saffron party wins seats with big margins in urban pockets whereas the difference in villages is narrow.
A pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the BSP -- which didn't work out -- would have had a much higher chance of victory, the data suggested. Mayawati's party is tipped to poll around 6 per cent votes in Madhya Pradesh.
The survey showed the Congress would have gained by declaring former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia as its chief ministerial candidate. Scindia enjoys high popularity among young voters.
What appears to be going in favour of the BJP is a fractured Opposition in the November 28 state Assembly election, the PSE observed.
The BJP's fortunes hang precariously to a discomforting lead of two per cent over the opposition. According to the survey findings, 42 per cent of the respondents backed the present Shivraj Singh Chouhan government for another term while 40 per cent sought a change.
Unemployment followed by farm-related problems, price rise and drinking water have emerged as major issues for the state, according to the PSE survey based on telephonic interviews across 29 parliamentary constituencies, with a sample size of 11,712.
In Rajasthan, the Congress seemed to be in a comfortable position for a victory over the Raje government. Party leader Ashok Gehlot is the top choice for the CM post.
What goes against the BJP in the state is a wave of anger among the low-caste and Muslim communities, the survey showed. The saffron party is also losing ground in its traditional strongholds in urban pockets.
The poll found a very strong anti-incumbency against the Raje government but Narendra Modi remains the popular choice as PM.
At the state level, election equations could have changed with a change in the BJP's CM face, the poll suggested.
For both the BJP and the Congress, the likely voter share gap appears to be between three and five per cent.
Unemployment, sanitation, agrarian problems, drinking water and price rise are the top concerns for Rajasthan voters, said the survey conducted 25 parliamentary constituencies via telephone interviews, with a sample size of 10,136.
In Chhattisgarh, the alliance between Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh and the BSP seems to be helping the BJP in the state elections, the survey indicated. The tie-up is likely to bag seven per cent vote.
With Opposition votes getting split, the vote-share gap among the major political parties remain narrow.
CM Raman Singh's smartphone distribution scheme is paying dividends to his party, but not in the Naxal-hit Bastar region, where the BJP remains unpopular, the poll showed.
Overall, the chief minister tops the popularity chart even after three terms in office. State Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel and Jogi trail the CM.
Unemployment has been found to be the key issue for the state voters, according to the poll conducted in 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, with a sample size of 4,486.
What's helping KCR in the state is a strong pro-incumbency wave, the poll showed. The chief minister has been found to be leading among all segments of population. Besides, the CM's social-welfare schemes are serving as a bonus for KCR.
The early dissolution of the state Assembly to advance elections has emerged as a masterstroke by the chief minister. The recent Congress-TDP alliance, however, doesn't seem to be delivering results, the survey suggested. Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM seems to be marring Congress fortunes in Hyderabad area. The Telangana PSE survey was conducted across 17 parliamentary constituencies via telephonic interviews, with a sample size of 6,877.