Rise to con­tinue

Money Times - - Trading On Technicals - By Hi­ten­draVa­sudeo

Last week, the Sen­sex opened at 31506.61, at­tained a low of 31471.41 and moved to a high of 32109.75 be­fore it closed the week at 32020.75 and thereby showed a net rise of 660 points on a week-to-week ba­sis.


The daily chart up­side move­ment will con­tinue above 32110. Sup­port will be at 31885-31715.

A deeper cor­rec­tion could re­sume on a fall and close be­low 31700 and re­trace­ment level in that case can be 31554- 31397-31229.

The momentary bias is to move higher with volatil­ity. A rise to­wards 33000 is likely with volatil­ity on a sus­tained rise and close above 32110.

A cor­rec­tion on the daily chart is be­low 31800.


The weekly can­dle is a good bull can­dle with the body gap up in re­la­tion to its pre­vi­ous week and a break­out above 31522. In the last edi­tion, we had in­di­cated that a rise will con­tinue above 31522.

Sup­port dur­ing the week will be at 31867-31624-31522- 31360.

A chan­nel up-move is vis­i­ble with the break­out above 31522, which may take the Sen­sex higher to test the up­per chan­nel line.

In due course of time, up­per chan­nel is likely to test 34000-

3500 with volatil­ity. The chan­nel is shown in the chart along with the in­ter­nal re­trace­ment of 161.8% of 2 swings 31260-30680 and 30024-22494.

Over­all, a rally to 34000-35000 is likely with volatil­ity in due course of time.

Higher range for the week can be 32263-32901.

Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC) Daily chart:

1-Day trend - Down 3-Day trend - Up 8-Day trend - Up

Weekly chart:

1-Week trend - Up 3-Week trend - Up 8-Week trend - Up

Monthly chart:

1-Month trend - Down 3-Month trend - Up 8-Month trend - Up

Quar­terly chart:

1-Quar­ter trend - Up 3-Quar­ter trend - Up 8-Quar­ter trend - Up

Yearly chart:

1-Year trend - Up 3-Year trend - Up 8-Year trend - Up

BSE Mid-Cap In­dex Weekly chart:

1-Week trend - Up

3-Week trend - Up

8-Week trend - Up

A break­out was wit­nessed which will take the BSE Mid-Cap in­dex to 15800 at least in the near-to-short-term from the cur­rent level of 15187.

BSE Small-Cap In­dex

1-Week trend - Up

3-Week trend - Up

8-Week trend – Up

The BSE Small-Cap in­dex showed a break­out but the can­dle is in­de­ci­sive. A fur­ther rise can be seen above 16019 clos­ing. On a rise above 16019, ex­pect a rally to­wards 16513.

Strat­egy for the week

Traders long can hold the same with a stop loss of 31360. A weak open­ing and cor­rec­tion dur­ing the week to 31867- 31624 can be used for ac­cu­mu­lat­ing in­dex and in­dex-re­lated stocks with a stop loss of 31360. A rally to­wards 33000 is likely with volatil­ity.

Over­all, a rise is likely to con­tinue with in­tra-day, in­tra-week or in­tra-month cor­rec­tion to scale to the 34000-35000 zone. Ma­jor higher bot­tom is 30680 and as long as this level is not vi­o­lated, cor­rec­tion can be seen as part of the volatil­ity in the over­all rally.

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