Pol­i­tics sink low

Money Times - - Bazar.com -

Switch on any news chan­nel and you will see end­less de­bates on de­mon­e­ti­za­tion (DeMo). Open any news­pa­per and you will see end­less col­umns on the mer­its and de­mer­its of DeMo. It’s been a year since DeMo and both the NDA and UPA are in cel­e­bra­tory mood. Each has its own take on its suc­cess/fail­ure. One cel­e­brates it as a black day in the In­dian econ­omy while the other cel­e­brates it as the day that broke the back­bone of cor­rup­tion. Both par­ties are loudly vo­cal rais­ing their pitch for the bit­ter elec­toral fight in Hi­machal Pradesh and Gu­jarat. The af­ter­math of DeMo and the ex­e­cu­tion of GST has slowed down the GDP growth and this is be­ing played up at the elec­toral bat­tle fields. The war of words is get­ting terse day af­ter day. While the pol­i­tics is sink­ing to a new low, the eco­nom­ics of the coun­try is on long leave. This hes­i­ta­tion was vis­i­ble in the mar­ket moves of late. The mar­ginal neg­a­tive in the pre-mar­ket SGX Nifty would end up at nearly 0.5-0.75% fall in one ses­sion. On ob­serv­ing these move­ments closely, one will find the changed di­rec­tion of po­lit­i­cal winds. The over ex­po­sure of pol­i­tics, to the hun­dreds of news me­dia and the noisy de­bates be­tween the same per­son­al­i­ties of the Congress and BJP make a mock­ery the ac­tual re­al­ity! The com­mon man is tor­tured by such po­lit­i­cal com­men­ta­tors as an id­iot as they think he be­lieves ev­ery word of theirs. Change in the di­rec­tion of the po­lit­i­cal wind can be gauged from the well-writ­ten scripts read out by Rahul Gandhi. Of late, the story re­mains mean­ing­less but Rahul’s script may have sen­si­ble punches. The PM’s ‘mitro’ rhetoric hardly rings the warmth and sin­cer­ity. In fact, the mo­ment you hear the word ‘mitro’, you safe­guard your be­long­ings. The mar­ket is so mer­cu­rial that it can mea­sure NaMo’s ner­vous­ness about win­ning the polls by his sud­den meet­ing with Karunanidhi of all the po­lit­i­cal lead­ers and that, too, on a day be­fore the ver­dict of the 2G tele­com scam! Was this meet­ing a cour­tesy call or an in­vi­ta­tion to come to­gether for 2019 elec­tions or a warn­ing to get AIADMK get its act to­gether and join hands with the BJP! Ei­ther way, it re­flects NaMo’s ner­vous­ness and the Congress has no choice but to join hands with any or ev­ery party be it ‘Paati­daars’, OBC, Mus­lims, Dal­its, etc. It is hell bent on cook­ing a taste­less khichdi just like the one it cooked a decade and a half back.

Our prime con­cern is how in­vestors re­act to such mishaps or hap­pen­ings? Get­ting our port­fo­lio to this height of 10.4K Nifty or 33500 Sen­sex is in vain if we show com­pla­cency and sleep over such silent but sure in­di­ca­tors. Thus, in all pru­dence, in­vestors need to stay put with no fur­ther buys in such test­ing times. In­stead, con­sider off-load­ing in small lots at ev­ery rise and bulk dump­ing when the in­di­ca­tions get louder and stronger.

One has to con­sider that the NDA par­tic­i­pants, too, may make bolder out­bursts at the weak­en­ing of NaMo and seek their pound of flesh in the im­broglio. Also, the frag­mented op­po­si­tion though of no avail will put the econ­omy into re­verse gear and lead do­mes­tic as well as for­eign cap­i­tal to exit the mar­ket. God for­bid but if that hap­pens, the wheels of the econ­omy will stand de­flated flat tyred. Re­call the 2008 sce­nario if in case it has faded from your mem­ory. So, care­fully watch ev­ery move of the big­wigs in pol­i­tics. Await the poll out­come of Gu­jarat and Hi­machal Pradesh. If both spell prob­lems for the NDA or BJP, be pre­pared for a steep fall. There is no point await­ing the state poll out­comes of Mad­hya Pradesh, Ra­jasthan, Chat­tis­garh or Kar­nataka amid 2019 gen­eral polls as well. In case the BJP wins in both

states in Mid-De­cem­ber, then await sim­i­lar vic­to­ries in at least 3-4 states go­ing to the polls. In this case, gen­eral elec­tions may be held by end 2018 or early 2019 as the BJP may not al­low the ad­van­tage to slip from its hands. Till then, be care­ful of the sink­ing polity.

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