In October 2016, the Northern Region has continued to register a decline in purchase of electricity in short term bilateral market except for the Western Region. The sales of electricity in the short term bilateral market have registered an increment; the maximum sales have been registered in the Northern Region. Overall, we can infer that the Southern Region has registered a growth of eight per cent in demand w.r.t the last month of September.
Table 1: Projection in demand for November 2016
The Power Exchange has shown (reference Table 2) an increase in the price of about 3.0% in October 2016 w.r.t September 2016. The Market Clearing Price (MCP) for October 2016 is discovered as Rs 2509.36 per MWh. Last year in 2015 the price of electricity for October 2015 was Rs 3026.74 per MWh. This decline in price of about 17% is due to a decline in demand of electricity because of the increase in Open Access charges and an increase in generation capacity.
In power exchange the Southern Region has registered highest increase in price of 13% and other regions have shown marginal increases of 4% except for the Northern Region. The price in Northern Region may drop further and price in Southern Region may get stabilised in November.
The power demand for electricity in November 2016 will not change. In December 2016 all-India demand is projected to be 161,969 MW and the all India Peak Met will be 149,176 MW. This shows that the peak demand deficit will be 12,793 MW. Hence we can infer that the price of electricity may increase for peak hours as the demand may not be fulfilled due to transmission constraints.
Source: Indian Energy Exchange Table 2: The change in IEX price for October w.r.t September 2016.