Novem­ber de­cline in IIP: A sta­tis­ti­cal bug

Project Monitor - - FRONT PAGE - DR M.S. KA­PA­DIA n or­der to pro­mote early cIn­dex of In­dus­trial pro­duc­tion de­clined 3.2 per cent in Novem­ber. The per­for­mance evoked dis­may among the pol­icy mak­ers, as it has come af­ter 9.8 per cent shoot up in Oc­to­ber. How­ever, we hold that, as in the prev

IN­DEX OF IN­DUS­TRIAL PRO­DUC­TION (Y-O-Y % IN­CREASE)

Elec­tric­ity

Over­all IIP

Ba­sic goods

Cap­i­tal goods

In­ter­me­di­ate goods

Con­sumer goods in­di­cate at least any YoY drop in the in­dex num­ber.

Min­ing and elec­tric­ity slowed down in Novem­ber (go­ing by un­ad­justed data) and man­u­fac­tur­ing de­clined, the first drop af­ter 12 months of growth.

Tak­ing the cu­mu­la­tive data for April-Novem­ber that should iron out month-tomonth vari­a­tions in­clud­ing bump in Oc­to­ber and dip in Novem­ber, in­dus­try has grown fur­ther over the pe­riod, though fee­bly, on the back of up­ward man­u­fac­tur­ing. IIP in­creased 3.9 per cent (2.5 per cent) dur­ing the first eight months of the on­go­ing fis­cal. Man­u­fac­tur­ing ex­panded 3.9 per cent, against 1.5 per cent in the sim­i­lar pe­riod last year and a de­cline in this pe­riod two years back. Min­ing slowed from 2.5 per cent to 2.1 per cent and elec­tric­ity from 10.7 per

2014-15

2.5

1.5

10.7

2.5

8.3

4.9

1.9

-5.7

-15.9

1.8

2015-16

2.1

3.9

4.6

3.9

3.8

4.7

2.2

4.1

11.9

-0.5 cent to 4.6 per cent.

In man­u­fac­tur­ing, 7 out of 22 ma­jor in­dus­tries de­clined cu­mu­la­tively, whereas the 15 oth­ers were in pos­i­tive growth phase. Fur­ni­ture, gems & jew­ellery, etc shot up 64 per cent. The in­dus­try, com­pris­ing mainly gems & jew­ellery, is turn­ing out su­perla­tive out­put since around De­cem­ber 2014. Wear­ing ap­parel in­creased

Cap­i­tal goods

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