India to be second largest importer of petroleum by 2024
India’s gasoline, or petrol, exports will fall by 98% by 2019, and it will become the second largest importer of gasoline after Indonesia by 2024, BMI Research said. “We forecast India’s net gasoline exports to decline by 97.8% over the next five years, from 306,800 barrels per day in 2014 to just 6,760 bpd in 2019. This decline will be a result of rapid growth in domestic demand in India, which will require output normally designated for exports to be directed inwards,” said BMI Research, a Fitch Group company.
India, it said, will become a net importer of gasoline from 2020, despite a significant increase of production domestically. “Our forecasts show that India will become the second largest net importer of gasoline after Indonesia by the end of the decade, overtaking the likes of China, Australia and Malaysia as consumption growth slows in these key consumer countries,” it said. The rise in domestic demand will provide an import outlet for India’s growing gasoline production – set to rise 10.3% over the next five years.
At present, India remains the largest gasoline exporter in the Asia-Pacific region, exporting the majority of its output to Asia and the Middle East, which accounted for nearly half of India’s total refined fuels exports in 2014.
However, falling demand in these two markets will see their imports diminish over the coming decade, it said.
India’s refined fuel shipments to the Middle East decreased by 14.3% over 2013-2014, a trend that may persist with output from new refineries expected to ramp up to full capacity over the next few years.
Also, India’s gasoline exports to the rest of Asia also declined by 9.7% over the same period.
Rising fuel efficiency gains in the developed economies, such as Japan and Taiwan, moderated gasoline use in the transport sectors, while refining capacity expansions in the emerging economies, such as Vietnam, has intensified competition in the exports market.
Although a pick-up in refined fuels demand from Australia, due to the closure of some of its refineries is expected to provide some respite, it will not be sufficient to offset the loss in demand from Middle East and Asia, BMI said.