In­dia to be sec­ond largest im­porter of petroleum by 2024

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In­dia’s gaso­line, or petrol, ex­ports will fall by 98% by 2019, and it will be­come the sec­ond largest im­porter of gaso­line af­ter In­done­sia by 2024, BMI Re­search said. “We forecast In­dia’s net gaso­line ex­ports to de­cline by 97.8% over the next five years, from 306,800 bar­rels per day in 2014 to just 6,760 bpd in 2019. This de­cline will be a re­sult of rapid growth in do­mes­tic de­mand in In­dia, which will re­quire out­put nor­mally des­ig­nated for ex­ports to be di­rected in­wards,” said BMI Re­search, a Fitch Group com­pany.

In­dia, it said, will be­come a net im­porter of gaso­line from 2020, de­spite a sig­nif­i­cant in­crease of pro­duc­tion do­mes­ti­cally. “Our fore­casts show that In­dia will be­come the sec­ond largest net im­porter of gaso­line af­ter In­done­sia by the end of the decade, over­tak­ing the likes of China, Aus­tralia and Malaysia as consumption growth slows in th­ese key con­sumer coun­tries,” it said. The rise in do­mes­tic de­mand will pro­vide an im­port out­let for In­dia’s grow­ing gaso­line pro­duc­tion – set to rise 10.3% over the next five years.

At present, In­dia re­mains the largest gaso­line ex­porter in the Asia-Pa­cific re­gion, ex­port­ing the ma­jor­ity of its out­put to Asia and the Mid­dle East, which ac­counted for nearly half of In­dia’s to­tal re­fined fu­els ex­ports in 2014.

How­ever, fall­ing de­mand in th­ese two mar­kets will see their im­ports di­min­ish over the com­ing decade, it said.

In­dia’s re­fined fuel ship­ments to the Mid­dle East de­creased by 14.3% over 2013-2014, a trend that may per­sist with out­put from new re­finer­ies ex­pected to ramp up to full ca­pac­ity over the next few years.

Also, In­dia’s gaso­line ex­ports to the rest of Asia also de­clined by 9.7% over the same pe­riod.

Ris­ing fuel ef­fi­ciency gains in the de­vel­oped economies, such as Ja­pan and Tai­wan, mod­er­ated gaso­line use in the trans­port sec­tors, while re­fin­ing ca­pac­ity ex­pan­sions in the emerg­ing economies, such as Viet­nam, has in­ten­si­fied com­pe­ti­tion in the ex­ports mar­ket.

Al­though a pick-up in re­fined fu­els de­mand from Aus­tralia, due to the clo­sure of some of its re­finer­ies is ex­pected to pro­vide some respite, it will not be suf­fi­cient to off­set the loss in de­mand from Mid­dle East and Asia, BMI said.

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