LDF support base shrinks in Kerala

Results of elections to the 16th LS are a shot in the arm for CM Oommen Chandy, who ensured the single largest contingent of 12 MPs from his small state to the 59- member UPA. Mr Chandy was humble in victory but claimed due credit for swimming against the current and converting the vote into a positive referendum on his government. Only once, in 1985 post- Indira assassination, had the ruling front in Kerala outscored the Opposition in LS elections. The polls show UDF scoring margins in 80 Assembly segments, five more than the UDF MLAs, including three of the RSP. The LDF electoral support base has further shrunk to 56 segments and BJP gets four.

Several factors had gone awry for Mr Chandy but the spectacular win gives him the muscle to push through with his priorities, starting with a Cabinet shuffle, quite likely before the Assembly session on June 9. His priority is to bring back former cinema minister K. B. Ganesh Kumar into the Cabinet, for which he may have to drop a minister, possibly of the I group, to keep the Cabinet size at 21.

The victory adds to his clout before the high command, a fact which has to be accepted by both PCC president V. M. Sudheeran and home minister Ramesh Chennithala. This new clout should also fetch him a quicker nod from the high command for his governance and coalition priorities.

However, the social coalition formed with the coming together of Mr Chandy, Sudheeran and Ramesh Chennithala has been felt across constituencies and proved crucial wherever margins have been slender.

CMP leader C. P. John says the Xian- Nair- Ezhava coalition has been a time- tested talisman of the Congress, starting with the first Congress ministry of Pattom Thanu Pillai in 1948, with T. M. Varghese and C. Kesavan being part of the Government. This triangular line- up can be nurtured to the advantage of the UDF, comments Mr John. The trio were huddled at Cliff House late in the afternoon after the results, indicating their resolve to strengthen the UDF at a time when Congress has been decimated in most other states. If the trio splits and resorts to the game of oneupmanship, it could be curtains to one of the few Congress- led ministries.