‘Sensex to Touch 30K’
It’s the first time in 30 years that one party has got a majority on its own.
Investors, relishing the prospect of a strong government, sent the Nifty to over 7,200. The BJP has the numbers to form the government on its own but the party is expected to rope in its pre-poll allies in a coalition government.
“I have no doubts in my mind that we have started the biggest bull market that at least I think I will see in my lifetime,” broker and Big Bull, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, told ET NOW. “The index will surely double and treble. If it doubles in five years from now, it will be a very poor gain actually. I see it happening much faster. Index will double in the next three (years)… I mean, from 6,300. I will be disappointed if in three years we have a Nifty below 12,500.”
The Sensex rose 4.9% over the week to a record of 24,121.74 on Friday, while the Nifty jumped 5.2% to 7,203. The indices have been among the best performers in emerging markets, rising 13.94% and 14.26%, respectively, since the beginning of the year. “Change is indeed sweeping the country,” said Motilal Oswal, chairman of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “In my view this is the best time to invest in equities for the medium to long term. A portfolio mix of growth and cyclical stocks would yield far bigger returns than debt or for that matter any other asset class.”
Indian stocks have outperformed most emerging market indices so far this year on hopes that elections and a new government headed by Modi will end policy uncertainty and revive investment. Several promoters, some of them perceived as being close to the man who will be Prime Minister, have seen their wealth surge with stocks on a tear. Gautam Adani’s wealth has risen Rs 12,512 crore in the past week, while that of Reliance Industries Ltd’s Mukesh Ambani is up Rs 12,207 crore and that of Vedanta’s Anil Agarwal has advanced Rs 9,123 crore. But Friday’s results exceeded expectations and most exit poll projections. Given the margin, the chances of a decisive, reform-oriented government has increased manifold, investors believe. “The current bull market to continue with some correction in next few days,” said Nirmal Jain, chairman of India Infoline. “Sensex to touch 30,000 by year end. Though some of the sectors are expensive, many of them including cyclicals, banking, industrial and consumer discretions are way off from their peak and these are the sectors to rally going forward.” Some of the biggest gainers on Friday include JP Power, up 8.19% to Rs 18.22, Axis Bank, up 7.9% to Rs 1,795. All sectors, except three ended in the green with the BSE Bankex rising 4.39% and the BSE Realty index gaining 5.97%. The consumer goods index fell 1.85% and the IT index slipped 2.22% while the healthcare index fell 1.39%. Sesa Sterlite was the biggest gainer in the Nifty, rising 11.05% on hopes that the new government will push for the lifting of the ban on iron ore mining in force in many parts of the country. Punjab National Bank rose 8.16% to Rs 924.95 on hopes that a Modi-led government will find a way to resolve the bad assets on bank balance sheets. Bharat Petroleum rose 6.85%, while DLF rose 6.50% to Rs 170.35. State Bank gained 5.95% to Rs 2,414, while ICICI Bank gained 5.38% to Rs 1,470.15. India has been ruled by a series of coalition governments since 1989, with the single largest party dependent on allies for a majority and thereby being held hostage to them. That era has come to an end with the BJP win.
“It is interesting that we have such a clear mandate after 30 years,” said Rasesh Shah, chairman and CEO, Edelweiss Group. “This is good news for economic growth. We needed a clear verdict to get the economy back on track.” Rating agency S&P said on Friday that it expects the new government’s reform initiatives in economic and fiscal policies in the next two to three months may have significant implications on the sovereign credit rating on India’s rating. “In our view, NDA’s strong showing indicates that it will have a reasonably good political platform to tackle structural issues,” it said.