Talk of Normal Monsoon Set to Cheer India Inc
El Nino will be neutralised before monsoon strikes the Kerala coast on June 1, say scientists
Pune/New Delhi: India’s latest monsoon forecasting model predicts good rainfall this year, which will end severe water shortage that is threatening power supply and cheer farmers who have been devastated by two consecutive droughts. The Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) predicts mostly normal and sometimes heavy rainfall across the country barring parts of coastal Gujarat, western Rajasthan, northern Kashmir and par ts of the Northeast. Its forecast is in step with predictions of Australian, US and Indian scientists who say that that the monsoon-disrupting El Nino phenomenon is ebbing and will be completely neutralised before the monsoon strikes the Kerala coast on June 1.
However, weather scientists caution that CFS is still an experimental model and its current assessment is based on weather parameters until February, while the I n d i a Mete o r o l o g i c a l Department (IMD) needs weath- er parameters till March to give its official monsoon forecast. “We will issue our official forecast only when all the parameters till March are available,” said DS Pai, head of long-range weather forecasting at IMD.
However, many forecasters are already saying this year’s monsoon rainfall will be normal. Last week, Weather Risk predicted good rainfall this season. “The models are indicating above-avera g e r ai nf al l from June to September,” said Kanti Prasad, head meteorology at Weather Risk and former director of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting at the weather office.
The IMD, which accurately forecast last year’s weak rainfall, and Skymet, which got its forecast completely wrong in 2015, are also expected to issue their predictions this month.
Scientists said the new forecast model of the IITM is a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model being developed by the institute.