Talk of Nor­mal Mon­soon Set to Cheer In­dia Inc

El Nino will be neu­tralised be­fore mon­soon strikes the Ker­ala coast on June 1, say sci­en­tists

The Economic Times - - Diruption: - Jayashree Bhos­ale & Mad­hvi Sally

Pune/New Delhi: In­dia’s lat­est mon­soon fore­cast­ing model pre­dicts good rain­fall this year, which will end se­vere wa­ter short­age that is threat­en­ing power sup­ply and cheer farm­ers who have been dev­as­tated by two con­sec­u­tive droughts. The Cli­mate Forecast Sys­tem (CFS) of the In­dian In­sti­tute of Trop­i­cal Me­te­o­rol­ogy (IITM) pre­dicts mostly nor­mal and some­times heavy rain­fall across the coun­try bar­ring parts of coastal Gu­jarat, west­ern Ra­jasthan, north­ern Kash­mir and par ts of the North­east. Its forecast is in step with pre­dic­tions of Aus­tralian, US and In­dian sci­en­tists who say that that the mon­soon-dis­rupt­ing El Nino phe­nom­e­non is ebbing and will be com­pletely neu­tralised be­fore the mon­soon strikes the Ker­ala coast on June 1.

How­ever, weather sci­en­tists cau­tion that CFS is still an ex­per­i­men­tal model and its cur­rent as­sess­ment is based on weather pa­ram­e­ters un­til Fe­bru­ary, while the I n d i a Mete o r o l o g i c a l Depart­ment (IMD) needs weath- er pa­ram­e­ters till March to give its of­fi­cial mon­soon forecast. “We will is­sue our of­fi­cial forecast only when all the pa­ram­e­ters till March are avail­able,” said DS Pai, head of long-range weather fore­cast­ing at IMD.

How­ever, many fore­cast­ers are al­ready say­ing this year’s mon­soon rain­fall will be nor­mal. Last week, Weather Risk pre­dicted good rain­fall this sea­son. “The mod­els are in­di­cat­ing above-avera g e r ai nf al l from June to Septem­ber,” said Kanti Prasad, head me­te­o­rol­ogy at Weather Risk and for­mer di­rec­tor of the Na­tional Cen­tre for Medium Range Weather Fore­cast­ing at the weather of­fice.

The IMD, which ac­cu­rately forecast last year’s weak rain­fall, and Skymet, which got its forecast com­pletely wrong in 2015, are also ex­pected to is­sue their pre­dic­tions this month.

Sci­en­tists said the new forecast model of the IITM is a fully cou­pled ocean-at­mos­phere-land model be­ing de­vel­oped by the in­sti­tute.

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