El Nino Seen Weakening
The Ministry of Earth Sciences wants IMD to use CFS model as the main model for official forecast of India’s summer monsoon by 2017.
Weather scientists across the globe say the El Niño conditions, which led to two consecutive droughts in India, are weakening, while La Nina conditions are likely to set in only after the Indian summer season is over.
The Australian meteorological department in its forecast onMarch29saidthedeclineof the 2015-16 El Niño continues in the tropical pacific. “Internationalclimatemodels suggest El Niño will continue to weaken… returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter (June-August in Aust r a l i a ) a n d spring (September-November), climate models suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely. However, the accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year is lower than those at other times, and some caution should be exercised,” it said. The American National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre agrees. “A strong El Niño is present and is weakening,”itsaidonMarch28.