WTO Cuts Global Trade Forecast
New Delhi: India is unlikely to get respite from falling exports, according to the World Trade Organisation’s latest forecast for global trade.
The WTO on April 7 cut its forecast for world trade growth in 2016 further to 2.8% from the earlier estimate of 3.9%. In September last year, it had revised the estimate for 2016 downwards to 3.9% from 4.0%. However, the WTO expects global trade growth to rise to 3.6% in 2017. Growth in the volume of world trade is expected to remain sluggish in 2016 at 2.8%, unchanged from the 2.8% increase registered in 2015. Imports of developed countries should moderate this year while demand for imported goods in developing Asian economies should pick up. The WTO listed “a sharperthan-expected slowing in China (and) worsening financial market volatility” as factors that could further suppress global trade. “Indicators of business and consumer sentiment have turned more negative recently. However there is also some limited upside potential if monetary policy, which is already in place, succeeds in lifting growth in the Euro area,” said WTO director general Roberto Azevedo. The multilateral organisation said demand in the US and Europe is driving the modest growth, making up for slowdown in Asia and elsewhere. It cited some upside potential if monetary support from the ECB succeeds in generating faster growth in the euro area.
“According to our forecast, 2016 will be the fifth year that world trade will have grown at roughly the same rate as world GDP — rather than twice as fast as was the norm before the financial crisis,” it said.
WTO on April 7 cut its forecast for world trade growth in 2016 further to 2.8% from 3.9% earlier