IMD Fore­casts Nor­mal Mon­soon in Au­gust & Sept

Rain­fall ac­tiv­ity this month is likely to be 99% of long-pe­riod av­er­age, says weather of­fice

The Economic Times - - Economy: Macro, Micro & More - Our Bureau

New Delhi: Mon­soon rain­fall in likely to re­main nor­mal in the re­main­ing two months of the sea­son, the In­dia Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Depart­ment (IMD) has said, set­ting the stage for a good kharif har­vest and strong ru­ral de­mand.

Rain­fall in the four-month sea­son since June 1 has been nor­mal in most parts of the coun­try, bar­ring the south­ern states. It has been nor­mal or ex­ces­sive in the key crop-grow­ing states in north­ern and western In­dia although the past 10 days have seen rel­a­tively weak rain­fall.

“Quan­ti­ta­tively, the rain­fall over the coun­try as a whole dur­ing the sec­ond half of the sea­son is likely to be 100% of LPA with a model er­ror of ±8%,” the IMD said on Tues­day.

This year’s mon­soon ini­tially faced the threat of El Nino, which dis­rupts rain­fall pat­terns across the globe, but the threat sub­sided. The seasonal rain­fall fore­cast re­mains un­changed since June.

“The seasonal (June to Septem­ber) rain­fall over the coun­try as a whole is likely to be nor­mal (96% - 104% of Long Pe­riod Av­er­age) as pre­dicted in June,” IMD said.

Re­ced­ing fears of for­ma­tion of El Nino had led the IMD to up­grade its seasonal fore­cast from 96% to 98% of LPA in June.

Presently, global and na­tional fore­cast­ers have al­layed fears of El Nino dis­rupt­ing the south­west mon­soon, as it is likely to re­main neu­tral through this year. “Neu­tral ENSO con­di­tions are most likely till 2018 spring sea­son with high prob­a­bil­ity (80-90%) till end of 2017," the na­tional fore­caster said.

Rain­fall in Au­gust is likely to be around 99% of long-pe­riod av­er­age, with a model er­ror of +/9%, as fore­casted in June. First half of the south­west mon­soon recorded above nor­mal rain­fall, but the coun­try has been re­ceiv­ing weak show­ers since the past one week.

A se­nior of­fi­cial at IMD said that rain­fall from Au­gust 10 is likely to be sub­dued over Cen­tral In­dia and south penin­su­lar re­gion.

Rain­fall may be sub­dued over Cen­tral In­dia and south penin­su­lar re­gion from Au­gust 10

MAHADEO SEN

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