Global GDP growth fore­cast at 3.2% in 2018 amid un­cer­tain­ties

Iran Daily - - Tse & Global Economy -

The global econ­omy is pro­jected to carry for­ward its cur­rent mo­men­tum to gen­er­ate a 3.2 per­cent growth rate in 2018, the Con­fer­ence Board said in its lat­est Global Eco­nomic Out­look 2018.

The fore­cast is slightly down from the as­so­ci­a­tion’s Fe­bru­ary pre­dic­tion of 3.3 per­cent, Xin­hua re­ported.

A mod­est dip in global growth mo­men­tum is pri­mar­ily driven by a ma­tur­ing busi­ness cy­cle in the Eu­ro­zone and a slightly weaker growth out­look in emerg­ing mar­kets, driven by US dol­lar ap­pre­ci­a­tion and rising in­ter­est rates, as well as more chal­leng­ing eco­nomic con­di­tions in Brazil, Rus­sia and Turkey, the re­port said.

Mo­men­tum in ma­ture economies im­proved last year and will con­tinue grow­ing at about the same pace through 2018. Ma­ture economies are ex­pected to grow by 2.4 per­cent in 2018, un­changed from 2017, the New York-based eco­nomic re­search as­so­ci­a­tion re­ported.

The United States is fore­cast to grow 3.0 per­cent in 2018, up from 2.4 per­cent in 2017. The Eu­ro­zone is fore­cast to see a slow­down to 2.0 per­cent in 2018 from last year; the UK is pro­jected to grow be­low its po­ten­tial at 0.9 per­cent in 2018, down from 1.8 per­cent last year, while Ja­pan is pro­jected to grow 1.0 per­cent, down from 1.7 per­cent the pre­vi­ous year, ac­cord­ing to the Con­fer­ence Board.

Mean­while, emerg­ing mar­kets are pro­jected to grow by 3.9 per­cent on av­er­age in 2018, slightly down from last year.

Busi­ness and con­sumer con­fi­dence lev­els re­main very strong, in­di­cat­ing there is low re­ces­sion risk in the short term.

“The econ­omy is in good shape glob­ally. Eco­nomic in­di­ca­tors are point­ing in the right di­rec­tion. This growth can be sus­tained at least for an­other half year,” said Bart van Ark, chief econ­o­mist of the Con­fer­ence Board.

Lin­ger­ing po­ten­tial trade dis­rup­tions have lim­ited im­pact on such con­fi­dence lev­els. How­ever, if cur­rent ne­go­ti­a­tions spi­ral out con­trol and cause an es­ca­la­tion in terms of tar­iffs or quo­tas, they can “trig­ger an eco­nomic down­turn sooner rather than later”, the re­port warned.

“A bad out­come of the cur­rent rum­blings lead­ing to an es­ca­la­tion of tar­iff in­creases or the rise of quota will cre­ate a lot of un­cer­tain­ties,” said van Ark.

The econ­o­mist also noted that the big­ger prob­lem with these rising quo­tas is cre­at­ing “a lot of in­ef­fi­cien­cies in the econ­omy”.

Turk­ish Lira Euro Bri­tish Pound Aus­tralian Dol­lar Cana­dian Dol­lar 0.2200 1.1767 1.3356 0.7606 0.7689 Ja­panese 100 Yen Chi­nese Yuan UAE Dirham Kuwaiti Di­nar Iraqi 100 Di­nar 0.9060 0.1561 0.2722 3.3079 0.0008

Pub­lished by the­vaultz­

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