ﭼﺸﻢﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻊﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ

SMTnewspaper - - ﺧﺒﺮ - ﻋﻠﻰﺍﻛﺒﺮﻧﻴﻜﻮﺍﻗﺒﺎﻝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺩﺍﻥ

ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻧﮕﺮﻯ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻰ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﭼــﻮﻥ ﺍﮔﺮ ﻧﺘــﻮﺍﻥ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﻮﺟــﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ، ﺩﺭ ﻧﺘﻴﺠــﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﻰ ﺑــﺮﺍﻯ ﺭﻭﻧﻖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ. ﺩﺭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﭘﻴﺶﻧﮕﺮﻯ ﻭ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺑﺮﻃــﺮﻑ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺿﻌﻒﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﻛﺎﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﻛﺎﻥ ﻣﻬﻢ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﺍﺳــﺖ. ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﻳﺪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨــﻰ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺣــﺎﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻭﺍﮔﺬﺍﺭﻳﻢ ﭼﻪ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺘﻰ ﺑﻪﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﻫﺎ ﺭﺍ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ ﭼﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺠﻰ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ، ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻤﻜﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﺪ.

ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟــﻪ ﺑــﻪ ﺍﻫﻤﻴــﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﻧﮕــﺮﻯ ﻣﻰﺗــﻮﺍﻥ ﮔﻔﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰﻫــﺎ ﺩﺭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻫﺴــﺘﻨﺪ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺩﻳﺪ ﻣﺜﺒــﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﻧــﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ ﭼــﻮﻥ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺟﻨﮓ ﻳﺎ ﺳــﺎﻳﺮ ﺑﺤﺮﺍﻥﻫﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﺍﻣــﺎ ﭘﻴﺶﻧﮕﺮﻯﻫــﺎ ﺑﻪﻃــﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤــﺎﻥ ﺻﻮﺭﺗﻰ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ، ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﻴــﺪﺍ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﺪ ﭼﺮﺍﻛﻪ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻓﻨﺎﻭﺭﻯ، ﺍﻭﺿﺎﻉ ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺯﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞﭘﻴﺶﻧﮕﺮﻯ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ.

ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺭﻭ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺯﻳﺎﺩﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﻤﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨــﺪ ﺑﻪﺟــﺎﻯ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺴﺎﺯﻳﻢ. ﺍﻳﻦ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺒﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﭼﻪ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﻣﻰﺗــﻮﺍﻥ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺩﺍﺩ. ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺷﺸــﻢ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ 8 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻭ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻭﺭﻯ 2/5 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻫﻴﭽﻜــﺪﺍﻡ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﭘﻴﺪﺍ ﻧﻜﺮﺩ؛ 2/5 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻭﺭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎ 0/5 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺭﺳــﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ 8 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﺤﻘﻖ ﻧﺸﺪﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ. ﺩﺭﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺑﻪﺻــﻮﺭﺕ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻭ ﻏﻴﺮﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧــﮕﺎﻩ ﻛﺮﺩ ﭼﺮﺍﻛــﻪ ﺟﺮﻳﺎﻥﻫــﺎ ﻭ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻋﻮﺽ ﺷــﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑــﻪ ﭘﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴــﺮ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ. ﭘﺲ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﻴﺎﻭﺭﺩ.

ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻣﺎ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻧﻬﺎﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺎﺳــﺒﻪﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ 8 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺭﺍ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺍﻣﺎ ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺭﻭﺵﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺎﺳــﺒﺎﺗﻰ ﺧﻮﺩ ﻧﻤﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ؛ ﻛﺎﺭﻯ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺑﻪﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻝ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺎﻧﻚ ﻣﺮﻛــﺰﻯ ﻭ ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺳــﺖ. ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﺤﺎﺳــﺒﻪ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺑﻰﺗﺮﺩﻳﺪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺗﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪﺩﺳﺖ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ.

ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻧﭽﻪ ﺍﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ، ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺩﻫﻴﻢ. ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺁﻟﻤﺎﻥ ﻭ ژﺍﭘﻦ ﺍﮔﺮ ﺑﺨﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩﺍﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻳﻰ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺳــﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ ﻛﻞ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺍﺧﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﻨﺪ، ﺩﺭﺣﺎﻟﻰﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺧﺒﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺩﻗﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ.

ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳــﻦ ﺭﻭ، ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺖﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﺭﻭﺯﻣــﺮﻩ ﺍﻫﻤﻴﺘــﻰ ﻓﺮﺍﺗــﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﭼﻨﺪﺳــﺎﻟﻪ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ. ﺩﺭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺧﻮﺍﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺁﺭﺯﻭﻫﺎ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖﻫﺎ. ﺍﻣﺎ ﻫﻨــﮕﺎﻡ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻳﻰﺷــﺪﻥ ﺭﻳﺰﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻻﺯﻡ ﻭﺟــﻮﺩ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ. ﺑﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺭﺷــﺪ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ 8 ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻯ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﺼﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻭ ﺗﺨﻴﻞﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﺍﻥ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺗﺎ ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﺑﺮﻣﺒﻨــﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻊﮔﺮﺍﻳــﻰ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧــﻮﻉ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎ ﺩﻳﺪ ﺧﻮﺷﺒﻴﻨﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﺭﻭﻳﺎﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﺍﻧﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ. ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺍﻣــﺎ ﻭ ﺍﮔﺮﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷــﻮﺩ. ﺩﺭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻳﻜﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﻛﺎﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﺍﻧﻌﻄﺎﻑﭘﺬﻳــﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨــﺪ ﻫﺮﭼﻨــﺪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻫﺎ ﭼﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻠﻰ ﺑــﻪ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﺵ ﺁﻥ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﻧﺪ ﭼﺮﺍﻛــﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﺷــﻮﺩ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻮﺷﺶ ﻭ ﺗﺤﺮﻙ ﻭ ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺍﻣﺎ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻭﺍﻗﻊﺑﻴﻨﺎﻧﻪ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﺭﻳﺰﻯ ﻭﺍﻗﻊﺑﻴﻨﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻮﻉ ﺭﻭﻳﺎﭘﺮﺩﺍﺯﺍﻧﻪ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺮﺗﺮﻯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ.

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