ﺟﺬﺍﺑﻴﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ

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ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻧﺪ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺟﺬﺍﺑﻴﺖ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳــﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﻈــﺮ ﺩﺍﺭﺍ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻠﻜــﺮﺩﻩ ﻭ ﺍﺭﺯﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﻳﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷــﺪﻥ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺮﻭﻥﺳﭙﺎﺭﻯ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﺳــﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸــﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺷــﻮﺩ ﭼﺮﺍﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺍﻧﺒﺎﺷــﺖ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻼﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﺸــﮕﺎﻫﻰ، ﺍﺧﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺳﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻠﻜﺮﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺯ ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﺩﺳــﺘﻤﺰﺩ ﺑﺴــﻴﺎﺭ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳــﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻼﺕ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﻰ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺭﺯﺍﻥﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﺷــﻮﺩ، ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺰﻳﺖ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺖ ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﺗﻌﺪﻳﻞ ﻧﺸــﺪﻥ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺳﺒﺐ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﻧﺮﺥ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳــﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺑﺎﻻﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻯ ﻛﺎﺭ ﺩﺭ ﺳــﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺯﻳﺮ 5 ﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻣﻰﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯ ﻣﺰﺍﻳﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻞ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺰﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷــﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺟﺬﺏ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻛﺖ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻧﺠﻴﺮﻩ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ.

ﺗﺎﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰﻛﻪﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥﺩﺍﺭﺍﻯﺗﻮﺭﻡﺑﺎﻻﺳﺖ)ﺑﺎﺗﻮﺟﻪﺑﻪﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺗــﻮﺭﻡﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ1/4ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻯ، ﺗﻮﺭﻡﺣﺪﻭﺩ01ﺩﺭﺻﺪﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥﺭﻗﻢ ﺑﺎﻻﻳﻰ ﺍﺳــﺖ(، ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ »ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺠﻰ« ﻭ »ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰﭘﺬﻳﺮ« ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳــﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗــﻮﺭﻡ، ﻧﻪﺗﻨﻬﺎ ﻣﻀﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻤﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻗــﺪﺭﺕ ﺧﺮﻳﺪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﺑﻠﻜﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﻌﺎﻝ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺳــﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﺸﺎﻏﻞ ﺑﻴﺸــﺘﺮ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ. ﻣﺨﺎﻟﻔﺎﻥ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ »ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺠﻰ« ﻭ »ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰﭘﺬﻳﺮ« ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺍﺳــﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻯ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ، ﺑﻪ ﻣﺒﺎﺭﺯﻩ ﺑﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﺑﺎﻻ ﻭ ﻋﻠﺖ ﺍﺻﻠﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﺴــﺮﻯ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻭ ﻧﺎﺗﺮﺍﺯﻯ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﺮﻭﻧﺪ ﻭ ﺳﻌﻰ ﻧﻜﻨﻨﺪ ﺑﺎ ﻓﺸﺎﺭ ﺑﺮ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﺩﻳﮕﺮﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﻯﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺰﻣﻦ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻳﺮﺍﻥ ﺑﻴﻔﺰﺍﻳﻨﺪ.

ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑــﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﻴــﺢ ﺍﺳــﺖ، ﻣــﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳــﺶ »ﺗﺪﺭﻳﺠــﻰ« ﻭ »ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰﭘﺬﻳﺮﻯ« ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﺳــﺐ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺭﻡ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﺍﺯ ﭼﻴﺰﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ 4 ﺳﺎﻝ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖﻫﺎﻯ ﻳﺎﺯﺩﻫﻢ ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺯﻩﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻃﻮﻻﻧﻰ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻧﮕﻪ ﺩﺍﺷــﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﻫﻪﻫﺎﻳﻰ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺷﺪﻳﺪﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺣﺎﺩﺙ ﻭ ﺩﻭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻯ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﺜﺒﻴﺖ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺍﺭﺯ ﺩﺭ ﭘﻴﺶ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ.

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