Will Brexit hap­pen?

Tehran Times - - ANALYSIS & INTERVIEW - By Anna Sa­dat Hos­seini Fard

TEHRAN — These days there are con­tro­ver­sial news about Brexit talks and its fate. Some sources state that the de­par­ture of Bri­tain from the Euro­pean Union is in­evitable and should be re­spected by the Bri­tish cit­i­zens last year! How­ever, some Euro­pean sources be­lieve that Bri­tish with­drawal from Europe alone won’t hap­pen. There seems to be a com­plex game about Brexit. This game will be even more com­pli­cated when we have Theresa May’s gov­ern­ment and its equa­tions on one side and the equa­tion of the United Europe lead­ers on the other side. What is cer­tain is that nei­ther of the two sides of the equa­tion can be a re­li­able source for Bri­tish cit­i­zens, es­pe­cially those who have voted for leav­ing the Euro­pean Union.

The first round of Brexit talks has ended with­out achiev­ing the ex­pected re­sults. The first round of ne­go­ti­a­tions be­tween se­nior Bri­tish and EU of­fi­cials in Brus­sels ended up with lit­tle agree­ment. Fol­low­ing these talks, the value of Pound Ster­ling has dropped. David Davis, the Bri­tish con­ser­va­tive politi­cian and Brexit Min­is­ter has em­pha­sized that Bri­tain is will­ing to with­draw from the EU even with­out reach­ing an agree­ment. The fact is that now the Bri­tish exit strate­gies of the Euro­pean Union are more and more dis­turbed than ever be­fore. This tur­moil and col­lapse is re­sulted from lack of clear prospects for the out­come of the Brexit ne­go­ti­a­tions. On the one hand, Euro­pean of­fi­cials be­lieve that in or­der to face the re­peat of the Bri­tish ref­er­en­dum of 2016 in other EU mem­ber states, it is nec­es­sary for Lon­don to pay high ex­penses to leave the EU. On the other hand, Bri­tain, as the main trad­ing part­ner of many EU coun­tries, is try­ing to use their eco­nomic cred­i­bil­ity on the path to po­lit­i­cal scru­tiny.

One of the main con­cerns of the Bri­tish au­thor­i­ties is the cre­ation of a gap be­tween the 27 EU mem­ber states over the pref­er­ence and style of strikes against Lon­don.

In such a sit­u­a­tion, com­mer­cial com­pa­nies in the UK and in Europe re­main con­fused about the Brexit ne­go­ti­a­tions. They have been cap­tured by politi­cians who seem to have no in­ten­tion of es­sen­tially ne­go­ti­at­ing the Bri­tish with­drawal from the Euro­pean Union. While the ne­go­tia­tors in Brus­sels have ac­knowl­edged their dis­crep­an­cies, Theresa May, the Bri­tish Prime Min­is­ter, has met with the man­agers and head of dif­fer­ent com­pa­nies in Lon­don. Bri­tish cor­po­ra­tions be­lieve that the gov­ern­ment should en­gage in fun­da­men­tal and last­ing ne­go­ti­a­tions with busi­ness own­ers over Brexit. Schol­ars have also warned that if there is no trade agree­ment with the Euro­pean Union, or at least a tem­po­rary agree­ment to with­draw from the union in the next two years, wide­spread and de­struc­tive costs will come into the UK econ­omy. In the 4-day talks in Brus­sels, the two sides tried to find com­mon ground for co­op­er­a­tion, but the Bri­tish and EU ne­go­tia­tors ac­knowl­edged their deep di­vi­sions.

In­deed, what will hap­pen to the ne­go­ti­a­tions of the Bri­tish with­drawal from the Euro­pean Union? Is there any in­cen­tive in this re­gard, or are English and Euro­pean politi­cians play­ing with Euro­pean public opin­ion and, more im­por­tantly, with those Bri­tish cit­i­zens who are op­posed to stay­ing in Europe? What is cer­tain is that in re­cent months, Euro­pean and English au­thor­i­ties have re­peat­edly spo­ken about the cost of Lon­don’s exit from the Euro­pean Union. Some news sources have said that Bri­tish of­fi­cials, and es­pe­cially the op­po­si­tion voices, are de­sign­ing a new ref­er­en­dum on this is­sue. How­ever, Theresa May, the Bri­tish Prime Min­is­ter, who was con­sid­ered an op­po­nent of Brexit in the past year, is try­ing to make things look nor­mal. The Bri­tish Prime Min­is­ter seeks to sug­gest that the Brexit talks are go­ing on se­ri­ously and that Lon­don’s in­ten­tion to leave the EU is also se­ri­ous.

How­ever, the stances posed by the Euro­pean au­thor­i­ties has raised the is­sue with a dif­fer­ent look. It seems that in these po­si­tions there is a back­lash be­tween the Euro­pean and Bri­tish au­thor­i­ties. For ex­am­ple, Guy Ver­hof­s­tadt, the lead Brexit ne­go­tia­tor for the Euro­pean par­lia­ment, de­clared that it’s pos­si­ble for Eng­land to re­turn to EU. This is­sue is right on the verge of hold­ing talks be­tween the two sides. Of course, the Euro­pean Union pres­i­dency has em­pha­sized that in this equa­tion, there will be no spe­cial priv­i­lege or re­lief for the Bri­tish! In other words, the Euro­pean Leader has shown the green light to the Bri­tish au­thor­i­ties to kick off their coun­try’s 2016 ref­er­en­dum re­sults. On the other hand, Bri­tish PM David Davies has em­pha­sized that the Bri­tish’s de­ci­sion to leave the EU is ir­re­place­able. The of­fi­cials of Theresa May’s gov­ern­ment have ar­gued that there is no doubt about the de­par­ture of their coun­try from the Euro­pean Union. But of course they haven’t ex­plain that what would hap­pen if the two sides of the ne­go­ti­a­tions did not reach an agree­ment on the Brexit is­sue.

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