Obama ‘s Ad­min­is­tra­tion

Diplo­matic Strat­egy in Mid­dle East..

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - By Saadula Aqrawi

Since World War II, the peace and sta­bil­ity of the world or­der has de­pended on a strong Amer­ica; how­ever, Wash­ing­ton pol­i­cy­mak­ers are now de­lib­er­ately edg­ing the US out of this po­si­tion of lead­er­ship. The price of these choices will be higher than even past crit­ics and cur­rent ad­ver­saries of Amer­ica could imag­ine. The vacuum the West has left in the Mid­dle East is now be­ing filled by re­gional pow­ers with­out the mil­i­tary, eco­nomic or diplo­matic clout to drive events and sta­bi­lize the re­gional power struc­ture. The best ex­am­ple of this is the de­ba­cle in Syria, which is now desta­bi­liz­ing Le­banon, Jor­dan and Iraq. The seis­mic shifts in power now spread­ing across the Mid­dle East are in­creas­ing the risk of re­gional wars which the United States will be un­able to stop.

The White House’s claims that Pres­i­dent Obama or­ches­trated a rap­proche­ment be­tween Turkey and Is­rael af­ter a pe­riod of ten­sion pro­vides fur­ther ev­i­dence of how ir­rel­e­vant the United States has be­come to the Byzan­tine pol­i­tics of the re­gion: the Pres­i­dent's trip ig­nored three pro­found subter­ranean shifts in Mid­dle East power align­ments brought about by Amer­ica’s strate­gic de­par­ture from the re­gion. These shifts in­clude the re­al­iza­tion of Kur­dish am­bi­tions for more au­ton­omy across the area, the new Is­raeli-Greek Cypriot re­la­tion­ship, and the com­mer­cial and diplo­matic al­liance be­tween Saudi Ara­bia and Turkey as a counter to ris­ing Ira­nian in­flu­ence. The spin man­agers claim that Pres­i­dent Obama helped Turkey and Is­rael to re­pair diplo­matic re­la­tions bro­ken when Is­raeli mil­i­tary in­ter- ven­tion to stop a Turk­ish ship­ment of hu­man­i­tar­ian aid to the Pales­tini­ans in Gaza in 2010 left sev­eral Turk­ish aid work­ers dead. The Is­raeli Pres­i­dent apol­o­gized for the at­tack and agreed to make pay­ments to the fam­i­lies of the aid work­ers who were killed.

U.S. diplo­macy has missed what is ac­tu­ally go­ing on in the Mid­dle East right now. First, long-term Kur­dish na­tion­al­ist ef­forts to achieve greater au­ton­omy in the re­gion are on the rise. While the long-term his­tor­i­cal con­se­quences of the U.S. in­va­sion of Iraq will not be clear for sev­eral decades , one of the short-term ef­fects has been the cre­ation of a vir­tu­ally au­ton­o­mous Kur­dish Repub­lic in north­ern Iraq--a pros­per­ous is­land of sta­bil­ity whose econ­omy is boom­ing and in­flu­ence ris­ing in a sea of re­gional chaos.

The pre­cip­i­tous Amer­i­can mil­i­tary and diplo­matic with­drawal from Iraq or­dered by the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion has limited what the United States could do to pre­vent the break-up of the Iraqi state, of which the Kur­dish au­ton­o­mous state is only one man­i­fes­ta­tion. The re­fusal of the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion to in­ter­vene un­til re­cently to counter the dis­so­lu­tion of Syria as a state has al­lowed the Kur­dish Syr­ian mi­nor­ity in the northeast to form its own semi-au­ton­o­mous Kur­dish re­gion mod­eled on the Iraqi-Kur­dish re­gion. The Turk­ish govern­ment has bro­kered a peace agree­ment with the PKK, which has brought decades of civil con­flict to an end. Part of that peace agree­ment al­lows greater au­ton­omy for the Kur­dish mi­nor­ity within the Turk­ish state.

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