The beginning of the end and tough stage for Iraq
Every political game is so when a party wins the endless games of politics, it is governing the country for a while, and measure the problems according to benchmarks it specifies. If it didn’t turn out so, then there would no longer be any governing, but preparing a poison to end its political life and social position. Iraq is now preparing the poison.
Iraq has returned to the beginning of the WWI in 1918, but in a more complex era and manner. Now instead of the international decision to conjoin Kirkuk, Mosul and Basrah provinces to form an artificial Iraq, it is considering another international decision: reversing the current situation to its starting point: dividing these three provinces and establish three independent states instead.
The Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has been monopolizing power for over the last four years. In addition to his vital position as PM, he controls three important ministries and the country's economy. Maliki's government seemed to prefer initial strikes in place of any understanding and agreement during his years in power. So he started persecuting the Sunnis including those taking part in his own government. Subsequently, he started threatening to use force in the disputed areas outside the Kurdistan Region, and eventually cut the budget of the Region in the beginning of 2014. He also delayed implementing the Article 140 and paying Oil and Gas and Peshmarga bills. The Iraqi government used the army and chose military solutions over political resolution to solve those deepening crises. Here, Nuri al-Maliki had two purposes:
Firstly: controlling the army and appointing his cronies in sensitive key positions, strengthening the Shiite position within the army then attacking the Sunnis under the pretext of combating terrorism. The terrorist groups have also taken advantage of the Sunni issue as well to widen their geography of terrorist activities, while al-Maliki has used the same policy for using force and his army to solve the political crises between the Sunnis and the Shiites.
Secondly: tens of billions of dollars have been spent on reestablishing the Iraqi army after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. Experts talk about the corruption and misuse of this large sum of money which has been lost between al-Maliki and his staff. Actually Iraq as a state has always been fuel to the army. That’s why it has been in need of strengthening the political atmosphere, not a full-equipped and cruel army in order to be used in internal conflicts.
The U.S has an indispensable moral and political duty to put an end to the serious situation in Iraq. Crises should be solved through political resolutions, and Nuri al-Maliki shouldn’t be prime minister once more. Power, revenues and administration of the country should be equally and equitably shared in accordance with the constitution and the position and size of each component geographically, demographically and historically. Each of the three components of Iraq; Shiites, Sunnis and the Kurds should own their states and coexist in a confederation. Each of the three ethnic groups must found an in- dependent, modern and a democratic state. Even in case of confederation, every party should have their own state that can form an alliance and can cooperate with the international community.
Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other countries that have their own interests in Iraq should respect the determination of the components and the political decisions inside Iraq. Any regional intervention during the circumstances Iraq is currently passing through will cause further deterioration of the crises and a disastrous eruption of the Sunni-Shiite war. At present, both parties are waging this war by proxy under another name and strategy. Iran plays a major role, because of its position and the strategy as an influential state in the region. Iran considers itself as a leader of Shiitism across the region and its alliance with Syria and Shiites of Iraq, Lebanon’s Hizbullah, Yemen and Bahrain’s Othies, and supporting Saudi’s Shiites would be important to Iran which is now the main decision maker. At the same moment, Iran has an international crisis over its nuclear program and openness policy towards Europe and the U.S. So the possibility of international compromise is not far off. Hassan Rohani promised more openness and closer relationships with the Arab countries and Turkey. If he intervenes in Iraq, this strategy will certainly come to nothing.
So if the U.S no longer cares about the destiny of Iraq, the door would be open to Iran and other countries to determine the future of the region, because after the developments in Mosul, the Middle East heads towards another future and Iraq will no longer be the Iraq that used to be. The situation is developing in the direction of an outbreak of a civil war between the Sunnis and Shiites. Things will turn to the worse. If such war erupts everything will go out of control, because the Sunnis cannot turn their back on the terrorist groups. They don’t appear to repeat the experience of Sunni-Arabic tribes’ alliance with the U.S when they fought against terrorism, and when the war was over, they suffered yet more killings by the Bagdad government. They’re now honestly saying that if Iran sends out forces to protect the sacred Shiite shrines in Bagdad, they will follow suite.
All the developments indicate the beginning of the end of Iraq as a unified state. The Shiites cannot eliminate the Sunnis. Kurds want to preserve their neutrality to protect the stability of their region because Nuri al-Maliki has shaken the ways of the Kurdish-Shiites and the KRG-Bagdad cooperation and alliance. Sunnis too cannot be weakened and forced to withdraw by the Shiites. It’s the golden period of Shiites in power... that is why the ways are pointing towards tough ends, and that could bring new crises, but it could cause worsening of the sectarian clash between Sunnis and Shiites. In practice, we should mention that what’s happening is the fault of al-Maliki’s policy. It’s true that crises have been existing for thousands of years and they’ve always been ready to explode at any moment, but Nuri al-Maliki’s failed strategy has been tense, confrontational and troublesome, not promising or successful at all.