Bagh­dad is dawn­ing in po­lit­i­cal crises while Hawler is pros­per­ing

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - By Gazi Has­san

Many parts of the Sunni-pop­u­lated ar­eas were over­run by ISIS, the op­po­si­tion and the for­mer Baathists mil­i­tary agents on June 10. It did not only lead Iraq to fur­ther risks and crises, but it also moved Iraq into a new stage of po­lit­i­cal, so­cial, eth­nic and even cul­tural life. Now a large part of Ara­bic Iraq is ruled by the Is­lamic Caliphate. The Is­lamic State has pre­vi­ously been de­clared.

Iraqi army has been ab­sent in most of the coun­try’s ter­ri­to­ries. Kur­dis­tan Re­gion borders with Iran, Turkey, Syria and the ar­eas con­trolled by ISIS and rad­i­cal Is­lamist groups are pro­tected by Pesh­merge and the Kur­dis­tan se­cu­rity forces. The rich oil and strate­gic city of Kirkuk is now a part of Kur­dis­tan. Sta­bil­ity and co­ex­is­tence of var­i­ous eth­nic groups are main­tained in those ar­eas.

Rus­sia vowed to pro­vide Iraq with war­planes and weapons to sup­port Nuri al-Ma­liki. The U.S Daily Beast has pub­lished the fol­low­ing: “In the fol­low­ing days, the Rus­sian pi­lots will be fly­ing over Iraq, five com­bat jets of to­tal of the 12 that have been sold ar­rived in Iraq, ac­com­pa­nied by Rus­sian train­ers." The news­pa­per be­lieves that due to the limited num­bers of Iraqi pi­lots, the Rus­sian pi­lots are fly­ing the war­planes in the war against ISIS. The Iraqi army, es­pe­cially naval and air forces have no mil­i­tary ca­pac­ity any longer. And the ground forces of al-Ma­liki with soldiers, tanks, ar­tilleries and other heavy mil­i­tary equip­ment re­treated and fled the bat­tle field. The weapons the army left in Mo­sul air­port fell into ISIS's hands. They can pos­si­bly use these war­planes like the Rus­sians, as it hap­pened two weeks ago when Bashar As­sad’s war­planes bom­barded Iraqi soil.

So Rus­sia could di­rectly in­ter­vene in Iraq as it is cur­rently tak­ing part in the Syria war. This cre­ates a new war front and a kind of al­liance be­tween Nuri al-Ma­liki, Iran, Rus­sia and Syria that would un­doubt­edly back Shias and would overtly be against the U.S strate­gies in the Mid­dle East.

So in case of any di­rect in­ter­ven­tion of Rus­sia, the op­pos­ing in­ter­na­tional front will se­ri­ously in­crease, in this case the Sunni front: coun­tries like Saudi Ara­bia, Arab Gulf states, a part of Le­banon, Egypt, Ye­men and most im­por­tantly Turkey will not re­main as by­standers. Among all these en­coun­ters, a sud­den and fa­tal con­fronta­tion may oc­cur in a pos­si­bly wider ge­o­graph­i­cal area than of now.

On July 1, the Iraqi Coun­cil of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives held its first meet­ing since April elec­tions. It was a fu­tile and failed meet­ing. The par­ties were not able to agree on the routes and prin­ci­ples of form­ing the new govern­ment. By the with­drawal of the Kur­dish bloc and some other Sunni par­ties from the meet­ing and the dis­ap­proval of some Shiaa par­ties over Ma­liki’s nom­i­na­tion for the third term, the meet­ing of the Rep­re­sen­ta­tives came to noth­ing. It was a cer­tain fail­ure. Iraq’s crises will not last an­other two weeks due to two fac­tors:

Firstly, if Nuri al-Ma­liki re­mains in power, the crises will de­te­ri­o­rate and Iraq will head to­ward a rapid de­struc­tion.

And if not, the agree­ment to gov­ern Iraq by a power shar­ing govern­ment with a real and equal part­ner­ship is hard and dif­fi­cult to ma­te­ri­al­ize. So Iraq is un­der the threat of col­laps­ing in all ways. We saw that Ma­liki’s State of Law couldn’t con­tain them­selves psy­cho­log­i­cally and in­tended to demon­strate that noth­ing has hap­pened in Iraq, and all other com­po­nents should obey their poli­cies. They prac­tice os­trich pol­i­tics. In the first meet­ing of the Iraqi Coun­cil of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives on July 1, some people close to al-Ma­liki ac­cused the Kurds of sup­port­ing the ISIS, which is an­other alarm­ing bell against the Kurds. The Kurds are not pro­tect­ing them­selves only, but also thou­sands of Chris­tian and Arab refugees who fled the ISIS and the op­pres­sion of al-Ma­liki’s forces and set­tled them in the Kur­dish cities of Hawler and Duhok. So in­stead of build­ing trust with Nuri al-Ma­liki, the Kurds should think of other al­ter­na­tives: they should ig­nore Bagh­dad once for all.

Sec­ondly, the Kurds be­lieve that the Iraq af­ter June 10 is dif­fer­ent and it won’t re­turn to the time prior to this date. In their deal­ings with Bagh­dad, they rely on some fac­tors. A large part of Sunni ar­eas also no longer un­der the con­trol of Bagh­dad, those are new-old neigh­bors to Kurds and have de­clared Is­lamic State in it. So the Kurds should deal with their new neigh­bors and the old friends (Shiaa) as a new re­al­ity. Most of the Kur­dish ter­ri­to­ries in­clud­ing Kirkuk un­til Shin­gal, Makhmoor, Khanaqin, a part of Dyalah and Sala­hadin have re­joined Kur­dis­tan and are now un­der the con­trol of Kur­dis­tan Re­gion. The po­lit­i­cal, ge­o­graph­i­cal and his­tor­i­cal re­al­i­ties have changed to­tally.

The sit­u­a­tion as a whole has changed. The un­fold­ing of events and de­vel­op­ments are rapid. Some new changes which no one ever thought of may be oc­cur­ring. Most of the lo­cal, re­gional and in­ter­na­tional cen­ters of pol­i­tics and de­ci­sion mak­ers have come to be­lieve that Iraq will be par­ti­tioned. This may not in­clude only Iraq, be­cause the re­gion in gen­eral is head­ing to­wards the poli­cies of con­fronta­tion and dis­par­ity. The dis­as­ter the Sykes- Pi­cot treaty caused now is re­vis­it­ing its own­ers in an­other form. At the same time, the eth­nic groups seem to be head­ing to­ward fur­ther vi­o­lence. They try to unite and co­op­er­ate among them­selves to elim­i­nate their his­tor­i­cal en­e­mies. The de­vel­op­ments in Iraq are rapid and dra­matic; the politi­cians in Bagh­dad seem not to sense the risk and se­ri­ous­ness of these de­vel­op­ments. They treat the sit­u­a­tion in cold man­ner. And some people be­lieve that things are just the same as be­fore. While we know that the only place in the Mid­dle East which is now hap­pily mak­ing cru­cial de­ci­sions is the Kur­dis­tan Re­gion. Kur­dis­tan wants to gain the world pub­lic opin­ion which is ex­actly op­po­site to what Bagh­dad is do­ing. Hawler de­vel­ops. We build a brighter fu­ture for all the eth­nic and re­li­gious groups here. We pre­dict even a brighter dawn to break in KUR­DIS­TAN in the near fu­ture.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Iraq

© PressReader. All rights reserved.