Our security is at best when we are rational
In an age of ‘unresolved uncertainty,’ states miscalculate from time to time because they operate with imperfect information in an ever complicated world. In the current crisis in Iraq, the KRG is playing a vital role, and we assume the KRG to be instrumentally rational. Rational players are those who maximize their utility. The utility in this case is security. To do so, there are two strategic methods which the security forces must master: prevention and protection.
Now and in the future, there can be no greater role or more important obligation for the KRG than preserving the security of its citizens. The increase in terrorist acts and bloody sectarian conflicts in Iraq and the region all pose an existential threat to Kurdish society which is capable of sustaining its current successful policy and the use of emergency measures to respond to these threats.
It is not logically possible to enter an open war with the Sunnis only for restoring stability. We know that we will be badly affected by conditions of instability and insecurity in Iraq. A higher price must be paid for the Kurdish involvement in defeating ISIS. We hope that the ISIS will be able to distract the Iraqi government for at least a year. Well, it is hard to predict what the ISIS will do next. In the future, it may pose destructive security threats to the Kurdistan Region. And many countries attempt to draw the Kurds into the conflict, but we will never be certain about the intentions of the other states. The Kurds understand this new reality. We know that the threats to our security are not just the problems that originate from the rest of Iraq. However, the point is to make rational decisions about how best we can secure the life of our citizens.
We require a strategy for the years ahead. It has to reflect the context in which it is developed. We need it to ensure that the KRG is prepared for and can respond to threats like ISIS.