Baghdad tries to look good from the outside, but remains the same inside!
After taking power, Ai-Abbadi immediately embarked on visits and looked for solutions to the regional conflicts. Al-Abbadi seems to think that problems of Iraq are originating from the world outside. His first step started with Saudi Arabia, and it agreed to open its embassy in Baghdad and consulate in Hawler. The same meetings went on with Turkey. He also visited Jordan and Egypt, where terror and issues related to both countries were discussed. Iran is also one of the important and close centers to Baghdad. It is the only country with a strong military and intelligence presence in Iraq, and the ties between the two countries tighten continuously.
Through these policies, Baghdad’s Prime Minister seems to set his agendas based on reformation and revision of the regional relations, or to restore the relations that were broken off during the rule of Baath Regime or the eight-year rule of Nuri AlMaliki. He most likely believes that Iraq’s problems are coming from the neighboring countries and those countries are the source of all the problems of Iraq's internal conflicts. By doing so, he intends to avoid solving the real problems in Iraq, because he must even block the way for the remainders of Al-Maliki’s policies which are still implemented inside Al-Daawa party, in which Al-Maliki is still highly influential.
The remarks Haidar Al-Abbadi made still have counter-remarks. He makes decision about solving the problems with Kurdistan Region on the one hand, and makes the decision of carrying on the national reconciliation on the other, and at the same time, he says "we Iraqis should solve our problems with the Sunnis, and we ourselves will confront ISIS, fight and defeat this group on behalf of the world." He says that he’ll arm the Arab Sunni tribes and at the same time says Iraq needs over three years to reorganize the army. He hesitates to arm the Sunnis. The BaghdadHawler problems are handed over to committees, and this means slowing down the process.
I think that Baghdad envied Kurdistan Region when they saw the resistance of Peshmerge, the improved relation of Hawler with the US, the European countries, Turkey, some Arab countries and Iran. This created an illusion that the defeated Iraqi army could do the same as Kurdistan does against ISIS. This is a wrong viewpoint, because the reality of Kurdistan is different from Baghdad’s. Peshmerge have a cause and a political, moral and humanitarian matter against ISIS and the radical groups. Kurdistan Region shelters over a million and a half refugees. Neither Baghdad nor the Iraqi army has these motivations. We should also bear in mind that the Arab community in Iraq has now divided into two main parts: Shia and Sunni. They don’t trust one another; ISIS still controls most of the Sunni areas. So the process of encouraging and arming the Arab Sunni tribes without having the US as an intermediary is not trusted by the Shiia political parties.
Al-Abbadi is making a big mistake. He has evaded the internal problems and runs towards the problems with the countries surrounding Iraq from the first days of his power. He probably thinks that he could solve the internal problems through improving the relations with his neighbors. If he wants to ease the pressures from the inside through reducing the outer pressures, he will only anaesthetize the problems temporarily. If he does not manage to unify the Iraqis, he will not be able to restore peace, unity and national reconciliation. He will neither make success in reinforcing the army, winning back people's trust and solving the problems between Baghdad and Hawler.