Is Turkey Shifting the Equations, or…?
The equations are about to head towards a brighter future. ISIS issue is part of the new strategic and political games in the Middle East. Last year, Turkey avoided taking part in striking the IS as the influenza of fear, terror and beheadings in the region. It justified its action through referring to the Turkish hostages held by the IS in Mosul and its different viewpoint with the US over Western Syria.
Last week, Turkey sent two planes carrying military aid to Baghdad; the Turkish Defense Minister visited Iraq's capital, spent the night in Erbil before meeting with the officials in the Kurdistan Region the following day. Later, he visited a training center for Peshmerge in (Soran) district, in which 30 Turkish military trainers and advisers give training to the Kurdish forces.
The main question is that, with the beginning of Iraqi army’s attack on Tikrit and preparing for Mosul, has Turkey felt the threat of Iran surrounding its borders together with allied Shiite forces? On the other hand, Turkey has reached the level of understanding with the US to determine the fate of Bashar Assad’s regime, and agree to the training of Syrian opposition forces. The threat of the rising domination is directly reaching its borders, while the power and existence of Iran could clearly be seen in four Arab countries.
The Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia stated in a press conference with his American counterpart that Iraq is under the control of Iran. This is the main indication of the problems and the new equations of the region. The US wants to reduce fears of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries over the dominance of Iran, but they couldn’t hide their concerns.
Those are related with the matter of revealing the political tendencies and disagreements in the region. Everyone knows neither the army nor the security forces or the Iraqi police are strong and capable enough to carry out such a great operation. So what’s the point of Al-Aba- di’s insistence? It could be related to the following points:
1. Having Iran on its side in the fight against ISIS will guarantee the ground of the regional policy which Iran is leading.
2. The army and Shia militiamen, without the international community’s observation, finish whatever they want to. This is a question asked by the Sunnis and some regional countries and even the UN itself.
3. Iraq wants to tell the world that it has sovereignty and its own constitution, while its borders are open for the forces of a regional country.
4.It’s not far that this political opinion leads Abbadi’s government to the same fate of Al-Maliki’s, who put himself between the equation of Syria, Iran and Hizbullah.
5. There is fear of sectarian war that would start in another form and level after ISIS.
So, Turkey needs reconsideration about its policy towards ISIS. The region also needs new transformation. Saudi Arabia and The US have assured one another that: A. Assad’s regime must go. B. Iran is the decision maker in Iraq. This will urge Turkey to consider the beginning of a new phase. From this perspective, the need of Turkey with Kurdistan Region to launch a bilateral military and security cooperation will increase. Turkey also knows that after the announcement of Abdullah Ocelan to end the armed struggle, the route to peace passes through Erbil and the role of President Barzani in this process, which is related to the peace between Kurds and Turks, is active and urging.
So the region is heading toward a new phase: the need for coordination and cooperation of the regional countries and the international coalition forces to stop (Shiitization) in the Middle East.