What will hap­pen in the post-ISIS and Houthi era?

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - By Gazi Has­san

Many events that are un­fold­ing in Iraq, Syria and Ye­men are con­tra­dic­tory. The con­tra­dic­tions are quite op­po­site too. ISIS has dev­as­tated Iraq. Iran and the Shias are fight­ing against the IS and si­mul­ta­ne­ously ex­ploit­ing them for pre­serv­ing their gained po­lit­i­cal po­si­tion. Saudi even if has no in­ter­est in hav­ing ISIS around though, but as a Sunni, it shares part of the dis­agree­ments, es­pe­cially in Syria.

In Ye­men, Houthis are in­tend­ing to con­trol the coun­try with the sup­port of Iran, Iraq, and Hizbul­lah in Le­banon, On the other hand, Saudi, Turkey, Gulf coun­tries, Egypt, Su­dan, Morocco, Pak­istan, the US and Europe are all against the Houthis.

Sup­pose that group (1) is against ISIS, while group (2) is not con­cerned with ISIS be­ing around, but we see that group (2) are against Houthis and has started fight­ing them in Ye­men with group (1) sup­port­ing them. It means that, the bal­ance and the in­ter­na­tional and re­gional coali­tion have di­vided into fac­tions in each coun­try. We may ask: How did that hap­pen?

This is the main ques­tion; the US pol­icy is es­sen­tially against both groups, and at the same time, sup­ports both coali­tions. The US is not against Iran’s in­ter­ven­tion in Iraq and Syria, at least for the sake of Iran’s com­mit­ment to aban­don its nu­clear pro­grams. Rus­sia crit­i­cized the cam­paign against the Houthis be­cause it main­tains that it was not sanc­tioned by the Se­cu­rity Coun­cil res­o­lu­tions. Ex­am­in­ing the de­vel­op­ments more closely we could clearly see that the US is the fi­nal player and de­ci­sion maker of the events. And in each of them, it has its com­mon en­emy and not or­di­nary ally.

What’s hap­pen­ing in Ye­men seems to force Iran mil­i­tar­ily not to think of step­ping into wider cir­cles. The sharp fall of oil prices also has di­rect im­pact on the coun­try. What hasn’t been ac­com­plished in Iraq, the de­lim­i­ta­tion of Iran's in­flu­ence, will be ac­com­plished in Ye­men by Saudi and its al­lies. What Saudi was not able to do in Iraq, it has suc­ceeded to ac­com­plish in Ye­men. It has man­aged to re­duce the po­lit­i­cal and mil­i­tary pres­sure against the King­dom as a re­sult of the rapid events in the Mid­dle East.

The bal­ance of the coali­tion is about to be tipped. As it has spe­cial char­ac­ter­is­tics in each event, it’s not far that such coali­tion could end Iran’s power and in­ter­ven­tion in the Arab coun­tries. Si­mul­ta­ne­ously, the process will con­vince Iran that the area may move into a new phase which will not abide by the con­tents of Sykes-Pi­cot agree­ments. The US, with help of Saudi Ara­bia can play a de­ci­sive role. Kurds as the only char­ac­ter in the Mid­dle East keep their neu­tral­ity, away from the sec­tar­ian con­flicts. The Kurds have al­ways strug­gled against any kind of ter­ror­ism and vi­o­lence, which makes the ground to strengthen com­mon in­ter­ests be­tween Amer­ica and Kur­dis­tan. And If Saudi wanted so it could main­tain the po­si­tion of Sun­nis in Iraq in the fu­ture. So in the Post-ISIS and Houthis war, whose out­come will gen­er­ate new re­gional bal­ances, the area will move to­wards deeper po­lit­i­cal prob­lems, dis­putes and di­vi­sions of in­ter­ests. But the Saudis will emerge as a new mil­i­tary force worth reckoning with.

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