What will happen in the post-ISIS and Houthi era?
Many events that are unfolding in Iraq, Syria and Yemen are contradictory. The contradictions are quite opposite too. ISIS has devastated Iraq. Iran and the Shias are fighting against the IS and simultaneously exploiting them for preserving their gained political position. Saudi even if has no interest in having ISIS around though, but as a Sunni, it shares part of the disagreements, especially in Syria.
In Yemen, Houthis are intending to control the country with the support of Iran, Iraq, and Hizbullah in Lebanon, On the other hand, Saudi, Turkey, Gulf countries, Egypt, Sudan, Morocco, Pakistan, the US and Europe are all against the Houthis.
Suppose that group (1) is against ISIS, while group (2) is not concerned with ISIS being around, but we see that group (2) are against Houthis and has started fighting them in Yemen with group (1) supporting them. It means that, the balance and the international and regional coalition have divided into factions in each country. We may ask: How did that happen?
This is the main question; the US policy is essentially against both groups, and at the same time, supports both coalitions. The US is not against Iran’s intervention in Iraq and Syria, at least for the sake of Iran’s commitment to abandon its nuclear programs. Russia criticized the campaign against the Houthis because it maintains that it was not sanctioned by the Security Council resolutions. Examining the developments more closely we could clearly see that the US is the final player and decision maker of the events. And in each of them, it has its common enemy and not ordinary ally.
What’s happening in Yemen seems to force Iran militarily not to think of stepping into wider circles. The sharp fall of oil prices also has direct impact on the country. What hasn’t been accomplished in Iraq, the delimitation of Iran's influence, will be accomplished in Yemen by Saudi and its allies. What Saudi was not able to do in Iraq, it has succeeded to accomplish in Yemen. It has managed to reduce the political and military pressure against the Kingdom as a result of the rapid events in the Middle East.
The balance of the coalition is about to be tipped. As it has special characteristics in each event, it’s not far that such coalition could end Iran’s power and intervention in the Arab countries. Simultaneously, the process will convince Iran that the area may move into a new phase which will not abide by the contents of Sykes-Picot agreements. The US, with help of Saudi Arabia can play a decisive role. Kurds as the only character in the Middle East keep their neutrality, away from the sectarian conflicts. The Kurds have always struggled against any kind of terrorism and violence, which makes the ground to strengthen common interests between America and Kurdistan. And If Saudi wanted so it could maintain the position of Sunnis in Iraq in the future. So in the Post-ISIS and Houthis war, whose outcome will generate new regional balances, the area will move towards deeper political problems, disputes and divisions of interests. But the Saudis will emerge as a new military force worth reckoning with.