Mosul, the big turning point!
the Peshmarga, Iraqi army and the Shite Popular Mobilisation Force have been taken.
It is clear that the security situation is closely linked to the economic one. Where there is stability there is economic activity. Foreign companies and personnel are closely watching the news to see when the I.S.I.S threat is going to be removed from Mosul so they can return. Even the local business community is holding its breath over this major city.
With the threat far removed, it is my assumption that the economy will recover. Albeit not overnight, but a noticeable return of economic activity will take place soon enough. Some would argue that the low crude oil prices are the biggest obstacle in the economic recovery. Although this is an important factor, it is by no means more important than Mosul. When the security situation improves and the huge war expenses stop, then there will be a big im- provement, even if the price of crude oil doesn't go up.
It is possible to assume that when Mosul returns to Iraqi government control, the worst for Kurdistan and Iraq will be over. The economy will start to recover, and consumer confidence should return. This is based on the assumption that the Iraqi government plays it right this time and avoids the sectarian fuel that lighted the I.S.I.S fire.