Mo­sul, the big turn­ing point!

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - Swara Kadir

the Pesh­marga, Iraqi army and the Shite Popular Mo­bil­i­sa­tion Force have been taken.

It is clear that the se­cu­rity sit­u­a­tion is closely linked to the eco­nomic one. Where there is sta­bil­ity there is eco­nomic ac­tiv­ity. For­eign com­pa­nies and per­son­nel are closely watch­ing the news to see when the I.S.I.S threat is go­ing to be re­moved from Mo­sul so they can re­turn. Even the lo­cal busi­ness com­mu­nity is hold­ing its breath over this ma­jor city.

With the threat far re­moved, it is my as­sump­tion that the econ­omy will re­cover. Al­beit not overnight, but a no­tice­able re­turn of eco­nomic ac­tiv­ity will take place soon enough. Some would ar­gue that the low crude oil prices are the big­gest ob­sta­cle in the eco­nomic re­cov­ery. Although this is an im­por­tant fac­tor, it is by no means more im­por­tant than Mo­sul. When the se­cu­rity sit­u­a­tion im­proves and the huge war ex­penses stop, then there will be a big im- prove­ment, even if the price of crude oil doesn't go up.

It is pos­si­ble to as­sume that when Mo­sul re­turns to Iraqi gov­ern­ment con­trol, the worst for Kur­dis­tan and Iraq will be over. The econ­omy will start to re­cover, and con­sumer con­fi­dence should re­turn. This is based on the as­sump­tion that the Iraqi gov­ern­ment plays it right this time and avoids the sec­tar­ian fuel that lighted the I.S.I.S fire.

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