Can conspiracy influence oil price?
The price of oil collapsed twice within the last eight years. The first collapse occurred when the price of oil reached a crescendo in August 2008 to exceed $140 p/b, but very soon dropped sharply to below $32 p/b in February 09. Subsequently, after a gradual healing in the price, the second collapse started from September 2014 which is now bouncing between $50 and $60 p/b. This article addresses the question whether the price of oil is influenced by conspiracy as well as other factors? Whether we believe in “conspiracy theory” or not, "The price is from God," the founder of the Russian oil giant Lukoil Mr Vagit Alekperov once remarked. It is literally true since the modern global political economy is turned to the high speed of changes that any ambitious analyst cannot build a reliable prediction. Yet, among other factors conspiracy can influence the price of oil, and this time is more obvious than ever. We can argue that Russia’s economy was targeted upon dipping the price of oil by the Western and Eastern interests. The West wants to reduce Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Europe through weakening its economy which greatly depends on exporting oil and gas to Europe. Numerous commentators believed that the oil price plunge was to weaken Russian Rubles in order to reduce Russia’s influence in Ukraine and the Middle East. Putin has certified this scenario when he said "at certain critical moments one gets the impression that politics prevails in forming the prices of energy resources." This conspiracy became sharper when Saudi Arabia did not cut the production even at this lowest level, as the Saudi's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said oil producers' cartel OPEC will not cut production even if the price falls to $20 a barrel. Later on, in December 2014, Putin disappointedly said, “We all see the lowering of the oil price. There's lots of talk about what's causing it. Could it be the agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to punish Iran and affect the economies of Russia and Venezuela? It could". So, isn’t sound to believe there is a mission-possible by the US and Europe to accomplish? And don’t you see these days Russia is more silent in the Middle East? As to the Eastern interests, we mainly mean two Asian giants who are the winners in this conspiracy. By virtue of cheap oil, India’s import bill and current account deficit is reduced immensely compared to the previous years, while the Chinese smart Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Plan against any oil price shock, is getting filled much sooner, as Gaurav Agnihotri concluded. In other words, all the oil related investments in India and China are now carried out at the 50% of the cost initially planned for, and well done Saudi Arabia!! Let’s ask again, isn’t sound to believe that the Saudi’s plan not to cut oil production will be immeasurably backed by India and China too? Thus, there is covert and overt conspiracy to curb Russia’s economy, and further, conspiracy influenced the price of oil.