Can con­spir­acy in­flu­ence oil price?

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - By Dr Yadgar Ka­mal Ah­m­mad

The price of oil col­lapsed twice within the last eight years. The first col­lapse oc­curred when the price of oil reached a crescendo in Au­gust 2008 to ex­ceed $140 p/b, but very soon dropped sharply to be­low $32 p/b in Fe­bru­ary 09. Sub­se­quently, af­ter a grad­ual heal­ing in the price, the sec­ond col­lapse started from Septem­ber 2014 which is now bounc­ing be­tween $50 and $60 p/b. This ar­ti­cle ad­dresses the ques­tion whether the price of oil is in­flu­enced by con­spir­acy as well as other fac­tors? Whether we be­lieve in “con­spir­acy the­ory” or not, "The price is from God," the founder of the Rus­sian oil gi­ant Lukoil Mr Vagit Alekperov once re­marked. It is lit­er­ally true since the mod­ern global po­lit­i­cal econ­omy is turned to the high speed of changes that any am­bi­tious an­a­lyst can­not build a re­li­able pre­dic­tion. Yet, among other fac­tors con­spir­acy can in­flu­ence the price of oil, and this time is more ob­vi­ous than ever. We can ar­gue that Rus­sia’s econ­omy was tar­geted upon dip­ping the price of oil by the West­ern and Eastern in­ter­ests. The West wants to re­duce Rus­sia’s in­flu­ence in the Mid­dle East and Europe through weak­en­ing its econ­omy which greatly de­pends on ex­port­ing oil and gas to Europe. Nu­mer­ous com­men­ta­tors be­lieved that the oil price plunge was to weaken Rus­sian Rubles in or­der to re­duce Rus­sia’s in­flu­ence in Ukraine and the Mid­dle East. Putin has cer­ti­fied this sce­nario when he said "at cer­tain crit­i­cal mo­ments one gets the im­pres­sion that pol­i­tics prevails in form­ing the prices of en­ergy re­sources." This con­spir­acy be­came sharper when Saudi Ara­bia did not cut the pro­duc­tion even at this low­est level, as the Saudi's oil min­is­ter, Ali al-Naimi, said oil pro­duc­ers' car­tel OPEC will not cut pro­duc­tion even if the price falls to $20 a bar­rel. Later on, in De­cem­ber 2014, Putin dis­ap­point­edly said, “We all see the low­er­ing of the oil price. There's lots of talk about what's caus­ing it. Could it be the agree­ment be­tween the U.S. and Saudi Ara­bia to pun­ish Iran and af­fect the economies of Rus­sia and Venezuela? It could". So, isn’t sound to be­lieve there is a mission-pos­si­ble by the US and Europe to ac­com­plish? And don’t you see th­ese days Rus­sia is more si­lent in the Mid­dle East? As to the Eastern in­ter­ests, we mainly mean two Asian gi­ants who are the win­ners in this con­spir­acy. By virtue of cheap oil, In­dia’s im­port bill and cur­rent ac­count deficit is re­duced im­mensely com­pared to the pre­vi­ous years, while the Chi­nese smart Strate­gic Petroleum Re­serve (SPR) Plan against any oil price shock, is get­ting filled much sooner, as Gau­rav Ag­ni­hotri con­cluded. In other words, all the oil re­lated in­vest­ments in In­dia and China are now car­ried out at the 50% of the cost ini­tially planned for, and well done Saudi Ara­bia!! Let’s ask again, isn’t sound to be­lieve that the Saudi’s plan not to cut oil pro­duc­tion will be im­mea­sur­ably backed by In­dia and China too? Thus, there is covert and overt con­spir­acy to curb Rus­sia’s econ­omy, and fur­ther, con­spir­acy in­flu­enced the price of oil.

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